A Machine Learning Portfolio Allocation System for IPOs in Korean Markets Using GA-Rough Set Theory

Individual investors are often regarded as irrational sentiment investors whose investment behaviour is affected by psychological factors. This study measures the actual investment return of individual investors who participated in initial price offering (IPO) stock investment in the Korean market from the short-term and long-term perspective and investigates the relationship with IPO characteristics that affect the investment sentiment of individual investors. Even though the underpricing of IPO stocks on the first day of listing on average reached 31% over the past 13 years, individual investors in the Korean stock market earned very little actual return on IPO stock investment. The market-adjusted return on IPO stock investment on the first day was about −0.5%, and even if they held IPO stocks for one year after listing, it was only 3.4%. The so-called winner’s curse, in which individual investors are allocated relatively many overvalued stocks appears to be present in the Korean IPO market. The allocation of IPO stocks by individual investors depends on several factors that reflect individual investors’ sentiment, such as past performance of previous IPOs, past industrial returns, institutional investors’ investment intent, offering size, an upward revision of the offer price, and issuing firm’s financial soundness. It was found that the higher the individual allocation rate, the lower the short-term investment return on the first trading day, confirming the winner’s curse risk of individual investors. However, in the long run, a reversal of returns was observed, in which the long-term returns of IPO stocks with high individual allocation rates rose. In order to mitigate the winner’s curse risk, it is desirable to reform IPO pricing mechanisms and allocation rules in a way that reduces the asymmetry of information between institutional and individual investors and reflects the subscription demand of individual investors.

This paper examines the impact of individual investors’ premarket and aftermarket sentiment on initial public offering (IPO) stock returns, based on 382 IPO firms in the Korean stock market from 2007 to 2014. The results reveal that individual investors’ premarket sentiment is significantly and positively related to the initial returns, as measured by the difference between the offer price and the first‐day opening price. The findings also show that individual investors’ premarket sentiment is positively associated with their aftermarket sentiment, implying a spillover effect from premarket to aftermarket sentiment. However, after high initial returns in IPO firms with individual investors’ high premarket sentiment, we find subsequent underperformance; this is more pronounced in firms with high premarket and aftermarket sentiment. Overall, our results imply that individual investors’ premarket sentiment can largely explain IPO stock returns. Additionally, premarket sentiment followed by aftermarket sentiment can account for IPO stocks’ underperformance. Nevertheless, the impact of individual investor sentiment on IPO stock returns seems to be a short‐term phenomenon, as high initial returns and subsequent underperformance are more evident within the first month after the IPO.

Initial public offerings (IPOs) represent a pivotal stage for entrepreneurs as they allow access to key resources, but they are also fraught with informational challenges. IPOs are informationally opaque environments that present entrepreneurs and investors alike with the possibility of either great financial success, or failure. Given the information opacity and asymmetry that characterize the process, researchers have long been interested in examining what factors investors might interpret as signals of firm quality, resulting in more favorable IPO outcomes. While contemporary entrepreneurship scholars have recently taken a greater academic interest in the signals of investor perceptions, the field remains largely unaware as to how and why these signals form, adapt, and impact judgment decisions throughout the IPO process. In this dissertation, I examine whether buzz – the valence and volume of investor sentiment surrounding a firm’s IPO – impacts valuation decisions and firm outcomes throughout the IPO process. Building on signaling theory, social contagion theory, and recent research in online marketplaces, this dissertation is the first study to examine buzz valence and volume as costly signals of market sentiment in the IPO context. Further, I propose here a new conceptualization of IPO buzz that focuses on the valence and volume of investor sentiment generated and disseminated through social interactions via social contagion. Using a sample of US IPO firms from 2017-2021, I test whether buzz is influenced by early IPO valuations during the IPO process. Further, I examine whether buzz has a reciprocal relationship with IPO valuations by influencing the assessments of institutional investors, leading to IPO valuation changes and subsequent IPO performance outcomes. Lastly, I examine what effects institutional factors have on the role of investor buzz in the IPO process.

Underwriter networks, investor attention, and initial public offerings

This article uses Buy-Sell Imbalance (BSI) as an indicator of investment behaviour to analyse the correlation between investor trading behaviours and returns of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). After controlling for variables, such as market excess return, the size factor, and the book-to-market factor and momentum factor, this article finds that if IPOs are more popular to individual investors when issuing, the short-term returns are higher. In contrast, there is little sign that institutional investors exhibit such effect. In Taiwan's stock market where individual investors are the dominant players, the investment behaviours of individual investors exhibit certain influences on IPO share prices. This article also divides the IPO samples into two groups, one group favoured by investors and the other not at the time of issue. The result shows that IPOs favoured by individual investors have significantly lower long-term returns after 1 year of their listings, while IPOs favoured by institutional investors ...

Allocation of shares to foreign and domestic investors: Firm and ownership characteristics in Swedish IPOs

In this paper, we establish the significance and effects of initial public offer (IPO) offer price ranges on subscription, initial trading, and post-IPO ownership structures. The primary market in India provides a unique setting for estimating the effect of various initial public offer (IPO) price ranges and IPO issue factors on the initial demand for an IPO among investors, measured by full IPO subscription/oversubscription, initial turnover (liquidity), and the post-IPO listing ownership structure among investors (ownership). For the IPO pre-listing stage, this study uses firth logistic regression to estimate the effect of various IPO offer price ranges (low to high) and various IPO issue factors on the full subscription/oversubscription of an IPO in each investor category. For the post-IPO listing stage, the study uses OLS regression to estimate the effect of various IPO offer price ranges (low to high) and various IPO issue factors on the initial trading ratio (IPO listing day trading) and the ownership percentage between institutional and individual investors. We find that all investor categories show a lesser likelihood for full subscription or oversubscription of an IPO issue at the lowest range of IPO offer prices. At the post-listing stage, the results indicate a diverse IPO offer price range in which individuals and institutions maximize their respective ownership holdings after the IPO listing. The results further show that lower promoter holdings diffuse higher ownership among individual shareholders by targeting lower IPO offer prices, thus increasing control.

This paper has employed the nonparametric minimum convex input requirement set (MCIRS) approach to measure the premarket underpricing and aftermarket inefficiency in Taiwan's initial public offerings (IPOs). The empirical results show that first, the average level of underpricing in Taiwan's IPO premarket is 15.66%, and underpricings in the hot- and nonhot-market periods are not different. Second, underpricing in the electronic IPOs (purchased by both (informed) institutional investors and (uninformed) individual investors) is not different from that in the non-electronic IPOs (purchased by (uninformed) individual investors). This result may not be consistent with Rock's (1986) winner's curse explanation for IPO underpricing. Third, in the nonhot-market period, premarket underpricing disappears one week after trading (i.e. there is no aftermarket inefficiency), and in the hot-market period, new issues are overpriced one week after trading (i.e. there is an aftermarket inefficiency). The paper also finds that the commonly used method of valuing IPOs with priceearnings (P/E), market-to-book and price-to-sales multiples of comparable firms performs poorly in Taiwan's IPOs. The predictability of the comparable firms method improves when the market values-to-sales and enterprise value-to-sales multiples are used.

This paper has employed the nonparametric minimum convex input requirement set (MCIRS) approach to measure the premarket underpricing and aftermarket inefficiency in Taiwan's initial public offerings (IPOs). The empirical results show that first, the average level of underpricing in Taiwan's IPO premarket is 15.66%, and underpricings in the hot- and nonhot-market periods are not different. Second, underpricing in the electronic IPOs (purchased by both (informed) institutional investors and (uninformed) individual investors) is not different from that in the non-electronic IPOs (purchased by (uninformed) individual investors). This result rejects Rock's (1986) winner's curse explanation for IPO underpricing. Third, in the nonhot-market period, premarket underpricing disappears on one week after trading (i.e., there is no aftermarket inefficiency), and in the hot-market period, new issues are overpriced on one week after trading (i.e., there is an aftermarket inefficiency). The paper also finds that the commonly used method of valuing IPOs with price-earnings (P/E), market-to-book and price-to-sales multiples of comparable firms performs poorly in Taiwan's IPOs. The predictability of the comparable firms method improves when the market values-to-sales and enterprise value-to-sales multiples are used.

This study conducted the examination of the long-run performance of IPO stocks in the Japanese market by measuring the monthly AAR/CAAR of sample IPO stocks. The study did this, so as to investigate whether IPO stocks in the Japanese market outperform in the long-run, as prior research on this phenomenon in the US market (Ritter, 1991; McDonald and Fisher, 1972) had found. The finding is that on the one hand, at TOPIX and TSE-2ND, stocks IPO firms that went public during 2004 to 2011 did not underperform the market in the long-run, as the monthly CAAR of sample IPO stocks on month 36 was not statistically significant. On the other hand, the finding also reveals that at MOTHERS, IPO firms underperformed the market throughout the period between months 2 and 36, and the monthly CAAR of IPO stocks at this market was –30.08 percent on month 36. The implication of this finding for the Efficient Market Hypothesis is that market efficiency held well at TOPIX and TSE-2ND; where during the sampling period abnormal returns could not be achieved and thus the long-run IPO underperformance was unlikely to occur. On the contrary, the departure from market efficiency was observed at MOTHERS: In the long-run, IPO stocks kept experiencing negative abnormal returns, and the existence of the long-run IPO underperformance was found to be significant. Long-run IPO underperformance did not exist, with only one exception: It is only at MOTHERS that the long-run IPO underperformance was observed, whereas at TOPIX and TSE-2ND the phenomenon was not observed.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the characteristics of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market, IPO underpricing and the long-run performance of IPOs and to find out the ex ante difference in the market structure between the pre-, during and post-periods of the Unremunerated Reserve Requirement (URR) at the 30 per cent rate. Design/methodology/approach The sample is a total of 245 IPOs listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Market for Alternative Investment (mai), during the period 2001-2012. The explanatory variables consist of the age of the firm, the offer size, the time-lag between the IPO date and the first trading date, the proportion of shares owned by the government and the IPO subscription rates by foreign and institutional investors. In further analysis, the authors adopt a two-stage least squares approach to derive unbiased estimates of the relationship between government ownership, IPO underpricing and firm quality. Findings We find the ex ante uncertainty and earning management partially explain the IPO underpricing phenomenon in the Thai IPO market. Our findings support the impresario hypothesis shown by the negative relation between underpricing and the three-year after-market. In addition, the 30 per cent URR imposition by the Thai Central Bank promptly reduced the number of IPO issues and the proportion of foreigners and institutions subscribing to IPOs. However, it was able to enhance the degrees of IPO underpricing and the long-run performance of IPOs in Thailand. Practical implications The results presented in this paper may be, therefore, useful for investors, security analysts, companies and regulators in many other emerging markets beyond Thailand. Given the results from the over-performance of IPOs in the post-URR period, investors may do better holding Thai IPOs for a long period with a likelihood of gaining a higher return. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature concerning IPOs – in that we have considered two stock markets, namely, SET and mai. Furthermore, unique data such as the government ownership and proportion of IPOs subscribed by foreign and institutional investors are taken into consideration in our research model. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time in the Thai IPO market, the effect of the 30 per cent URR on IPO underpricing and the performance of IPOs in the long-run has been closely examined.

Using unique information obtained from Korea regarding syndicates’ underwriting of initial public offerings (IPOs), this paper examines how syndicates are formed into syndicate structures, including fee distributions among syndicate members, and also investigates how they affect the IPO process, such as the underpricing of IPOs. Reciprocal participation among syndicates affects the formation of syndicates, and the formation strongly depends on the regulation of underwriting. Approximately 30% of the sample, which was hand‐collected, is managed by sole syndicates in that the book manager of the IPO underwrites the entire shares and takes out the overall underwriting fee. The remaining 70% is mainly controlled by the book managers in that over 90% of the shares for an IPO are allocated to the book managers, and over 90% of the underwriting fees are distributed to the book managers. The syndicate structure of an IPO has little effect on underpricing, which strongly depends on underwriting regulation, market conditions during the IPO process, and price adjustment after book building.

Abstract. Conducting an initial public offering (IPO) during the COVID-19 pandemic is not easy due to the current high level of economic uncertainty. This study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the initial return on IPO shares in Indonesia. In the study, a cross-sectional regression was applied, using a sample of 51 companies that conduct IPOs. It was found that the fear index over the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the initial return. The higher the fear index, the lower the return on IPO stocks on the first listing day. The results therefore demonstrates that the fear of COVID-19 influenced the IPO market return in Indonesia. This study extends the literature on the COVID-19 pandemic, especially on the initial return on IPOs. Practically, this research also provides insight into the issuers regarding the appropriate timing of IPOs during the crisis, particularly for investors who wish to buy IPO shares during an uncertain time. Policymakers are expected to mitigate the cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Indonesia, which may reduce investors’ fear related to COVID-19. This paper's limitation is that it only examines data from 2020, as this was the year in which COVID-19 first announced. Future research could include the short-term and long-term performance of IPOs, and also broaden the sample area to a larger region. Keywords: Initial return, IPO, COVID-19, fear index, Indonesia

This chapter offers insight into a typical initial public offering (IPO) process, highlighting key practical and legal considerations around disclosure, through the IPO prospectus and otherwise. The prospectus plays a key role in the preparations for, and execution of, an IPO. As an IPO prospectus typically constitutes a company's first public dissemination of financial and business information, the company and other parties involved in the IPO process must carefully consider the right balance between, on the one hand, drafting the IPO prospectus as a marketing document introducing the company and its business to potential investors, whilst, on the other hand, being able to use the prospectus as a disclosure document that protects the company against liability arising from claims from investors or others after the IPO. Here, the chapter summarizes the different phases in an IPO process and the most important documents and parties involved, focusing on the central role of the IPO prospectus. In addition, a number of changes resulting from the enactment of the Prospectus Regulation are likely to be of particular relevance to IPO processes. The expected impact of these changes is therefore also discussed.

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the effect of shariah status on initial public offering (IPO) underpricing, long-term performance and relationship between short-term and long-term IPO performance, and attempt to gain an insight into the nature of shariah IPO underpricing: a signal or an overreaction.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses IPOs during 1990–2018 from Indonesia. This study uses clustered regressions to address clustering phenomenon in IPO. To investigate long-term performance, this study uses cumulative returns, cumulative abnormal returns and Fama–French three factor regressions. This study also runs cross-sectional regressions on the relationship between short and long-term performances.FindingsThis study finds that shariah status reduces lowers non-trading returns (return from offer to open prices), suggesting that shariah status may reduce information asymmetry and compensation. This study finds that both shariah and non-shariah IPOs underperform the benchmarks, with shariah IPOs underperform more. Further analysis shows a negative relationship between initial return and long-term performance for both shariah and non-shariah IPOs, whereas the negative relationship is stronger for shariah IPOs. The results indicate that shariah compliance help reduce information asymmetry; however, shariah compliance does not necessarily signal quality. Instead, shariah compliance seems to induce investor sentiment, resulting in underperformance and reversal patterns in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThe results have various implications. Issuers may use shariah screening to lower underpricing. Investors may manage their investment horizons to mitigate IPO underperformance. Future research is needed to understand the nature of short and long-term performance of shariah IPO across countries. The use of ex-ante shariah definition becomes our limitation. This study also does not use buy and hold return to investigate long-term performance.Practical implicationsThe results have various implications. Issuers may use shariah screening to lower underpricing. The results show that sharia certification may play an important role in the IPO process. However, sharia status induces individual investors, leading to more overreaction in the long term. Thus, companies need to balance between sharia certification and overreaction in the long term. Investors may manage their investment horizons to mitigate IPO underperformance.Originality/valueThis paper extends studies on the effect of shariah status on IPO performance using Indonesia data. Using non-trading returns, this study provides sharper analysis on the underpricing study. This study shows that shariah status leads to an overreaction, instead of a signal for quality.