Abstract
Modern sensor technologies can provide detailed information about soil variation which allows for more precise application of fertiliser to minimise environmental harm imposed by agriculture. However, growers should lose neither income nor yield from associated uncertainties of predicted nutrient concentrations and thus one must acknowledge and account for uncertainties. A framework is presented that accounts for the uncertainty and determines the cost–benefit of data on available phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in the soil determined from sensors. For four fields, the uncertainty associated with variation in soil P and K predicted from sensors was determined. Using published fertiliser dose–yield response curves for a horticultural crop the effect of estimation errors from sensor data on expected financial losses was quantified. The expected losses from optimal precise application were compared with the losses expected from uniform fertiliser application (equivalent to little or no knowledge on soil variation). The asymmetry of the loss function meant that underestimation of P and K generally led to greater losses than the losses from overestimation. This study shows that substantial financial gains can be obtained from sensor-based precise application of P and K fertiliser, with savings of up to £121 ha−1 for P and up to £81 ha−1 for K, with concurrent environmental benefits due to a reduction of 4–17 kg ha−1 applied P fertiliser when compared with uniform application.
Highlights
It is estimated that globally 9–14 million tonnes of phosphorus (P) leaches from fields into watercourses (Beusen et al, 2016; Chen et al, 2016), largely as a result of excessive application of fertiliser
The results show that there was an economic incentive for precise fertiliser application of both phosphorus and potassium fertiliser once the uncertainty in soil’s nutrient concentrations estimated from sensors was accounted for
Given that growers need to subtract the costs of sampling and sample analysis from their gross income, further study should use the loss function to define an optimum where both uncertainty of information and the effort to collect the data by sampling and analysis are minimised
Summary
It is estimated that globally 9–14 million tonnes of phosphorus (P) leaches from fields into watercourses (Beusen et al, 2016; Chen et al, 2016), largely as a result of excessive application of fertiliser This excessive use of fertiliser is causing substantial environmental harm. To minimise such harm, fertiliser needs to be applied more precisely than at present, varying across fields to meet crop requirements but no more. Precision agriculture (PA) aims to produce sufficient crops sustainably for society’s needs while minimising costs to the producer and harm to the environment This involves the management of spatial and temporal variation within fields; it requires intense information. Growers need to have detailed maps of nutrient status or fertiliser requirement for their fields
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