A hybrid prediction approach for road tunnel traffic based on spatial-temporary data fusion

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a hybrid prediction model based on spatial-temporal data fusion to predict future tunnel traffic. Our approach consists of a local predictor, a global predictor, an outlier predictor, and a prediction integrator. Firstly, the local predictor forecast tunnel traffic based on the collected local data. It is more concerned with the historical and future traffic conditions, that is, the temporal correlation. Then, the global predictor uses data collected from peripheral road segments to predict tunnel volume, which models the spatial correlation based on a deep learning network. Thirdly, the prediction integrator dynamically integrates the prediction results of local and global predictors on the basis of the current weather conditions. In addition, we detect the abnormal traffic volume for training an individual outlier predictor. Finally, we integrate it with the output of the prediction integrator and accumulate the current tunnel traffic volume to calculate final prediction results. In our experiments, we collected the multisource urban-awareness data from Shanghai to evaluate the proposed hybrid prediction model. Our approach is obviously superior to the baseline when dealing with the general condition. The MREs of 30 min and 60 min tunnel traffic volume prediction are less than 6.5%. In addition, the outlier predictor of the proposed model significantly enhances the ability to predict the abnormal tunnel traffic under extreme weather conditions or unexpected traffic accidents.