Abstract
In India, the first confirmed case of novel corona virus (COVID-19) was discovered on January 30, 2020. The number of confirmed cases is increasing day by day, and it crossed 21,53,010 on August 9, 2020. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model has been proposed to determine the number of confirmed cases for upcoming 10 days based on the earlier confirmed cases found in India. The proposed model is based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and mutation-based Bees Algorithm (mBA). The meta-heuristic Bees Algorithm (BA) has been modified applying 4 types of mutation, and mutation-based Bees Algorithm (mBA) is applied to enhance the performance of ANFIS by optimizing its parameters. Proposed mBA-ANFIS model has been assessed using COVID-19 outbreak dataset for India and USA, and the number of confirmed cases in the next 10 days in India has been forecasted. Proposed mBA-ANFIS model has been compared to standard ANFIS model as well as other hybrid models such as GA-ANFIS, DE-ANFIS, HS-ANFIS, TLBO-ANFIS, FF-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS and BA-ANFIS. All these models have been implemented using Matlab 2015 with 10 iterations each. Experimental results show that the proposed model has achieved better performance in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). It has obtained RMSE of 1280.24, MAE of 685.68, MAPE of 6.24 and NRMSE of 0.000673 for India Data. Similarly, for USA the values are 4468.72, 3082.07, 6.1, and 0.000952 for RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and NRMSE, respectively.
Highlights
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), led by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), has become global pandemic within 4 months since it was first reported in China
In [23], author used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the expected infected patients in India for the upcoming days. They have used the data from January 31, 2020, to March 25, 2020, and to test the model they used the data from March 26, 2020, to April 15, 2020. nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) has been compared with their model and experimental results show the R2 value for NAR and ARIMA are 0.97 and 0.95 respectively
A unique hybrid model mBA-ANFIS consisting of mutation-based Bees Algorithm and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been used to forecast the number confirmed cases
Summary
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), led by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), has become global pandemic within 4 months since it was first reported in China. This virus mainly affects the respiratory system of human being, and it is distributed among birds, bats, mice and other animals [1, 2]. 79, 355 people were affected by this virus in China by the end of February 2020. Worldwide humanity is suffering from this deadly virus due to lack of possible cure of this virus. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a person can be infected if he/she touches the infected person and touches his/her own eyes, nose or mouth [4]
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