A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis

Operationalizing marketable blue carbon

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios—business as usual (BAU), and mitigation—and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. Implications: The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of methane emissions on the key categories of waste emission sources and to comparing results with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines.

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailedanalysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers.They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers ‘diverged fromthe scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change’. That is,portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions ofthe fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? Butshould we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? Webelieve the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates onclimate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes inbehaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissionsrequire a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority ofreaders receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level ofpublic understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoiddangerous climate change (Schellnhuber

Methane emissions along biomethane and biogas supply chains are underestimated

Report of the Lancet Commission on the Value of Death: bringing death back into life

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause of climate change, and municipal solid waste (MSW) is an important source of GHG emissions. In this study, GHG emissions from MSW treatment in Beijing during 2006–2019 were accounted, basing on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inventory model; the influencing factors affecting GHG emissions were analyzed by the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model combined with the extended Kaya identity, and the GHG mitigation potential were explored based on different MSW management policy contexts. The results showed that the GHG emissions from MSW treatment in Beijing increased from 3.62 Mt CO2e in 2006 to 6.57 Mt CO2e in 2019, with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 4.68%, of which 89.34–99.36% was CH4. Moreover, the driving factors of GHG emissions from MSW treatment were, in descending order: economic output (EO), GHG emission intensity (EI), population size (P), and urbanization rate (U). The inhibiting factors were, in descending order: MSW treatment pattern (TP) and MSW treatment intensity (TI). Furthermore, compared with the BAU (business–as–usual) scenario, the GHG mitigation potential of the MSW classification and the population control scenario were 35.79% and 0.51%, respectively, by 2030.

Carbon balance assessments of harvested wood products in Japan taking account of inter-regional flows

In recent years, concern has been increasing regarding the carbon emissions generated by mining activities. China is an extremely large coal producer (3695 Mt/2015) and consumer (3698 Mt/2015), and Shanxi Province (i.e., a major coal-producing province in China) is a crucial element in China's energy conservation and emission reduction goals. In this study, the Pingshuo mining area (PMA) in Shanxi Province was chosen as a case to analyze the dynamic changes in carbon emissions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, and the factors influencing carbon emissions were analyzed via the IPAT equation. Carbon emission sources in opencast mines mainly included fuel and explosive use, coal mine methane escape, coal and gangue spontaneous combustion, and electricity consumption. The carbon emission of the PMA increased from 4 × 104Mg in 1986 to 1.05 × 106Mg in 2015, with an average annual increase of 11.64%. In the PMA, 4.71 × 106Mg of carbon emissions from fuel consumption accounted for 41.79% of carbon emissions, and 5.26 × 106Mg of carbon emissions from methane emissions accounted for 46.66%. Carbon emissions from explosives and electricity use were 4.1 × 105Mg and 8.8 × 105Mg, respectively. In this mining area, the factors influencing carbon emissions included population, GDP, and coal output. The results of this study not only provide a reference for cleaner production in mining areas but also lay a foundation for the study of global opencast coal mining carbon emissions.

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a global concern after Paris Agreement (PA). Identification of GHG emission sources and accurate and precise estimation of the corresponding emissions is the first step to meet reduction targets under PA. Increasing share of agricultural emissions in the global concentration has raised concerns on this sector. Now, reducing agricultural emissions without compromising food security is a real challenge. The present study was aimed to provide the current emission profile of Pakistan’s agriculture, historical emission trends and future projections under agricultural growth scenarios according to prescribed guidelines of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for national GHGs inventory development. In this study, GHG emissions were estimated using United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Non-Annex-I Inventory Software (NAIIS), version 1.3.2 as per prescribed Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines. In these emission estimations, tier-1 approach (which employs default emission factors) was used in accordance with national circumstances and data availability in the country. The emissions baseline was projected for 2030 under business as usual (BAU), food security (FS) and enhanced consumption pattern (ECP) scenarios. Agriculture sector emitted 174.6 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-equivalent) emissions, of which 89.8 Mt is methane (CH4) and 83.7 Mt is nitrous oxide (N2O). Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were found to be 1.07 Mt of CO2-equivalent. Emission from agricultural soils constituted 45.5% of the total agricultural emissions followed by 45.1% from enteric fermentation and 6.5% from livestock manure management. The rest of 1.7% of the emissions were from rice cultivation followed by 1.1% from burning of crop residue. Historical emission trends showed that the agricultural emissions grew from 71.6 to 174.6 Mt of CO2-equivalent from 1994 to 2015, a 143.8% increase over the period of 21 years. Emissions baseline projections were found to be 271.9, 314.3 and 362.9 Mt tons of CO2-equivalent under BAU, FS and ECP scenarios, respectively.

Debate over climate change is nothing new. Scientists have been arguing about whether greenhouse gases released by human activity might change the climate since the late nineteenth century, when Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first proposed that industrial emissions might cause global warming.1 Fueled by partisan bickering, this dispute now is more bellicose than ever.

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 10:155-162 (1998) - doi:10.3354/cr010155 The IPCC future projections: are they plausible? Vincent Gray* Climate Consultant, 75 Silverstream Road, Crofton Downs, Wellington 6004, New Zealand *E-mail: vincegray@xtra.co.nz ABSTRACT: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future projections are based on a set of emission scenarios, IS92a to f, which are used to calculate future atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. These, in turn, are used to calculate projections of radiative forcing, and then projections of future temperature and sea level change to the year 2100, using computer climate models. The assumptions of these 6 IPCC emission scenarios for the years 1995 and 2000 are compared with currently available information on greenhouse gas emissions, world population trends, and trends in world coal production. All of the scenarios exaggerate one or more of these quantities. Calculations of confidence limits on the net human-induced contribution of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere show a very high level of inaccuracy. When added to the even greater uncertainties connected with assumptions on the main greenhouse gas, water vapour, and also on clouds, plus the uncertainties of the computer models themselves, the current IPCC future projections of global temperature and sea level must be regarded as extremely unreliable. Fossil fuel emissions assumed by the IPCC scenarios for the year 2000 are plausible for scenarios IS92a, b, c and d, but not for e and f. The calculated rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration since 1990 assumed by the IPCC is exaggerated by 13% for all scenarios. The calculated rates of increase in atmospheric methane from 1990 to 2000 are exaggerated by 3 to 7 times, world population increases by up to 5.5%, and world coal production increases by 60 to 510%. The rate of increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been almost constant, at 0.4% a year, between 1971 and 1996, despite a 54% increase in emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels over that period. Currently suggested reductions from present emission levels are therefore unlikely to influence carbon dioxide concentrations, or global temperatures. Since all of the IS92 scenarios exaggerate one or more current climate and economic trends, the calculated future projections of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are thus correspondingly exaggerated. A more realistic set of scenarios, which would include a mechanism for continuous updating, needs to be developed, thus scaling down the current values. Even if this is done, however, the accumulated inaccuracies inherent in the final calculations of climatic effects are so great as to render them unreliable as a guide to public policy. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · Emission scenarios Full text in pdf format PreviousExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 10, No. 2. Online publication date: August 14, 1998 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 1998 Inter-Research.

Scenario analysis of urban energy saving and carbon abatement policies: A case study of Beijing city, China

This addendum contains 2 important messages. (1) This document supersedes all previous versions of this work. Please do not use any older versions any more. (2) The atmospheric-science community now believes that it cannot estimate confidently the ''Global Warming Potentials'' (GWPs) of the indirect effects of greenhouse gases. A GWP is a number that converts a mass-unit emission of a greenhouse gas other than CO{sub 2} into the mass amount of CO{sub 2} that has an equivalent warming effect over a given period of time. This report refers to GWPs as ''CO{sub 2}-equivalency factors.'' For example, a forthcoming report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change disavows many of the GWPs estimated in an earlier IPCC report, and states that GWPs for the indirect effects of the non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases cannot be estimated accurately yet. However, this does not mean that in principle there are no GWPs for the non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases; rather, it means that some of the GWPs are uncertain, and that the earlier IPCC estimates of the GWPs may or may not turn out to be right (albeit, in at lease one case, discussed in this paper, the earlier estimates almost certainly will be wrong). In this report the author used the IPCC's 1990 estimates of the GWPs for 20-, 100-, and 500-year time horizons, and expressed the bottom-line results for each of these three time horizons. However, the recent uncertainty about the GWPs affects how you should interpret the results. Because the IPCC has disclaimed some of its GWPs, the GWPs as a group no longer are the best estimates of the warming effects over 20, 100, and 500 years. Instead, they are just a collection of possible values for the GWPs--in short, scenarios. Therefore, you should interpret the ''20-, 100-, and 500-year time horizons'' as three general GWP scenarios--say, scenarios, A, B, and C.--and not as time-period scenarios. For example, you should not think that the results shown here under the ''100-year time horizon'' actually embody the scientific community's best estimates of the relative warming potentials of the various greenhouse gases over a 100-year period. Instead, you should understand the results to be the outcome of making a particular set of assumptions about what the GWPs might be. The ''time horizons'' no longer necessarily represent time horizons, but rather general scenarios for, or assumptions about, the GWPs.