A geospatial and quantitative analysis of agricultural exemption passes during the California wildfires

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ABSTRACT This study focuses on the Agricultural Exemption Pass (Ag Pass) Program during the California (CA) wildfires from 2018 to 2023. The Ag Pass program allows agricultural businesses to request passes from country government officials to enter wildfire evacuation zones so that workers can check on livestock and crops. Using a primary dataset including economic metrics, geographic locations, agricultural business sector classifications (e.g. orchard, wine, farm), and the reason why an Ag Pass was requested (N = 1,856), this study examined pass approval for eight CA counties. The approach combines logistic regression and geographic information systems to explore how county commissioners issued (or denied) Ag Passes. The findings showed that the county, agricultural sector, and number of workers the pass was requested for were statistically significant predictors of approval. Passes for Napa, Yolo, Lake, Colusa, and Solano counties, as well as those for farms and for locations with more workers were more likely to be approved, whereas vineyard passes were less likely to be approved. Geospatial models showed that the fire proximity did not influence pass approval. These results illuminate key Ag Pass Program dynamics and can inform disaster management policies, which seek to balance human health, economic livelihood, and environmental resilience.

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