A Fuzzy Weighted Moving Average to Analyze Actual Warming

Abstract

This article firstly proposes a fuzzy weighted moving average (FWMA) to compute well for the beginning and end parts. Then, the FWMA is applied to both of the annual anomalies and the annual standardized differences (variance adjusted anomalies) of temperature among the six top nations or regions of cumulative CO₂emissions, Canada and the globe to reveal and compare the interdecadal trends. The related topic of ‘land/sea warming contrast’ was re-analyzed with the FWMA. The main findings are somewhat unexpected as follows: (1) The FWMA curves of anomalies showed that all six nations got warming up stronger than the globe except for India. But the sequence order of the nation’s warming extents in the last decade were much different from those of nation’s cumulative CO₂emissions. (2) The FWMA of the annual standardized differences of temperature showed much better than the annual anomalies. The sequence order of nation’s warming up agreed with that of the cumulative CO₂emissions among the seven nations. In contrary, the globe got warming obviously higher than all the seven nations or regions. The direct reason, in statistics, is that the climatologic variance of the globe is much smaller than all the seven nations, in statistics. (3) The related phenomena of ‘land/sea warming contrast’ appeared only in their anomalies, but disappeared all in the standardized differences. The direct reason is depended upon the around 2 times of difference of the climatologic variance between the land and sea. (4) The FWMA curves for the globe actually much closes to that of the sea than the land.