Abstract
This research aimed to analyze the relationship of causal factors and forecast CO2 emissions for a 15 years period from 2020 to 2034 by applying a non-recursive autoregression vector autoregression with an exogeneous model (Non-Recursive Var-X model). The Non-Recursive Var-X model has been made available for use in long-term forecasting (2020-2034), particularly in regards to the implementation of the ‘Industry 4.0’ policy of the Thai government. The study found that the results of the Thai government’s efforts or ‘governmental power’ (GP) will likely lead to levels of CO2 emissions that exceed the country’s carrying capacity as determined under its national strategic plan. The findings of this study show that CO2 emissions are expected to have a growth rate of 27.23 percent (2020-2034), reaching 95.88 Mt CO2 Eq by 2034. The Non-Recursive Var-X model provides a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.12% and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.25%. In this research, the Non-Recursive Var-X model was used and CO2 emissions were forecasted to rise continuously over the established period. This rise exceeds the carrying capacity of Thailand according to the criteria set by the Thai government.
Highlights
The Industry 4.0 policy of the Thai government aims to promote economic sustainability in the country, as is the case in many other countries around the world
Measurement of the Forecasting Performance In this research, we evaluated the performance of the Non-Recursive Var-X model by using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE)
The reliability of the model is demonstrated by the absence heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation, making it reflective of the relationship of all causal factors
Summary
The Industry 4.0 policy of the Thai government aims to promote economic sustainability in the country, as is the case in many other countries around the world This policy is a core component in defining many countries’ national strategies. The short term covers a 5-year framework (2020-2024), while the long term covers a 15-year framework (2020-2034) This policy is considered important for national development and to ensure consistency in economic, social and environmental aspects (Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board, 2018), especially in the formulation of consumption strategies which do not exceed carrying capacity. This has become a top priority in the implementation of Industry 4.0 (Achawangkul, 2017; Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board, 2018)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
