A Forecasting Analysis on China‘S Energy Use and Carbon Emissions Based on A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Carbon-Based Border Tax Adjustments and China's International Trade: Analysis Based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China's Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Carbon-Based Border Tax Adjustments and China's International Trade: Analysis Based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

This paper develops a hybrid computable general equilibrium model to explore the impacts of reducing renewable energy subsidies on China's energy transition in various scenarios. The results of the benchmark scenario indicate that China can realize its regulatory goals in energy consumption and structure, and carbon emissions intensity in 2030. This paper sets various policy scenarios to simulate the impacts of reducing renewable subsidies between 2021 and 2030. The analytical results of the scenarios indicate that the government's 2030 target for total energy and natural gas consumption and carbon emissions intensity can be achieved. However, the target for non–fossil energy is hard to fulfill when the renewable energy subsidy is reduced. The empirical results also indicate that a moderate renewable energy subsidy associated with significant technical progress in renewable energy is a crucial way for China to fulfill government targets and energy transition in 2030.

Developing ‘travelthai’: a dynamic Computable general equilibrium model for tourism of Thailand and case applications on tourism setbacks and tourism-related fiscal policies

Malaysia, as one of the top energy subsidizing countries, has announced to remove energy subsidies necessarily, not only to reduce energy consumption and the government budget deficit but also to improve overall efficiency and air quality. Therefore, this study evaluates the impacts of rationalizing energy subsidy and its energy efficiency improvement during 2010–2030 using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model. Results revealed that reducing energy subsidies decreases energy consumption and emissions of all air pollutants. While the economic performance of the country improves in the long run due to stimulation in capital demand and investment, it reduces in the short run. Energy efficiency also improves by 1.1% and 2.3%, in the short run, in response to a reduction of 10% and 100% in energy subsidies, respectively. Energy efficiency improvements decrease the negative effects of pure subsidy policies on real GDP, trade, investment, and household consumption. The efficiency improvement policies also are effective in reducing more level of the rebound effect and lead to more energy saving in the economy, particularly in the petroleum products sector. The impacts on the rebound effect also differ across economic sectors. The results of this study provide new insights for energy subsidy policy and energy efficiency and suggest that additional tools and policies are required for improving the energy efficiency caused by phasing out energy subsidies. Malaysia, as one of the top energy subsidized countries, attempts to reduce the level of energy subsidies over time and, consequently, decline the use of fossil fuels in the economy. Therefore, this study analyzes the impacts of different subsidy reform policy on energy efficiency and, consequently, on economic and environmental performance and rebound effect of Malaysia by a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model.

This thesis investigates the effects of trade on the labour market in Malaysia. Specifically, we study the impact of a tariff cut in the motor vehicle industry on the different occupational wages and employment. Tariffs played an important role in Malaysia’s economic development; from an import-competing economy to an export-oriented economy. The literature on trade, wages and employment for Malaysia is limited because of inadequate occupational data to carry out econometric analysis. To fill this gap, we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Malaysian labour market, MyAGE_LM to analyze the effects of a reduction in motor vehicle tariffs. CGE models have theoretical rigour and extensive analytical capabilities for carrying out policy analysis. This thesis contributes to the literature by (i) Introducing labour supply with nine different occupational groups into the dynamic CGE model for Malaysia and (ii) Analyzing a reduction in the motor vehicle tariff rate in Malaysia. The policy simulation is a 5 per cent cut in the motor vehicle tariff rate. To facilitate the analysis of the tariff cut, the MyAGE_LM model incorporates the labour market mechanism similar to that of Dixon and Rimmer (2003; 2008). The simulation results for the impact of the tariff cut on macroeconomic indicators, sectoral outputs and nine categories of occupational wages and employment are presented. The results are analyzed in terms of major model mechanisms. The macroeconomic results of the tariff cut indicate that in the short run, with the government aiming for revenue neutrality through increased labour taxes, there would be a small welfare gain. We also found that in the short run, exports fell despite real devaluation. So, the export sectors do not benefit in the short run. In the long run, aggregate real wages increase, and there is an economy-wide gain in GDP and aggregate consumption. The sectoral results revealed that most export-oriented industries would experience an increase in output. There are some evident effects on occupational wages and employment. The occupational group that stands out is the semi-skilled occupational group, SklAgriFish. This occupational group experienced the biggest decrease in vacancies. SklAgriFish occupations do well because no workers in this occupation are employed in the motor vehicle industry. Also, a significant proportion of SklAgriFish workers are hired in the export-oriented Agriculture industry, and the Agriculture industry sells to FoodBevTob (which does well in the long run because of real devaluation). The PlantMachOpr occupation does relatively well because a high proportion of these workers is employed in OthMachEquip industry (export-oriented and a winner from tariff cut in the long run). In general, from the MyAGE_LM policy simulation, we find that the tariff cut did not have a significant impact on the labour market. There are only small changes in average real wages and employment. We find damped labour supply effects in both the short and the long run. Semi-skilled occupations gain relative to skilled and unskilled workers. Skilled workers do not do well. They are mainly hired in non-traded industries that scarcely use imported motor vehicles

Designing an emissions trading scheme for China with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

This paper examined the macroeconomic influence of tax reform on the Ethiopian economy using the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. It utilized the updated 2009/2010 Ethiopian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) from 2005/2006 developed by Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). To investigate the impact of tax reform on the Ethiopian economy, different simulations were made turn by turn. First, a reduction in direct tax by 30% is introduced to see the impacts of direct tax reduction on the economy. As a result, macroeconomic variables such as GDP, absorption, private consumption, government expenditure, import, export, government income, investment, and aggregate output show a considerable improvement. Additionally, there is an increase in factor income and welfare gain for households though the factor supply of labor and land is fixed compared to base case scenarios. On the second simulation, an increase in sales tax by 67% was introduced to examine at the impact of sales tax on the economy. Thus, increases in sales tax improve the overall economic performance compared to direct reduction. However, under the third simulation decrease in import tariff by 24% worsened the general economic performance by encouraging import and depressing domestic output. Based on the finding, encouraging consumption tax reform, protecting the home country from external sector influence to encourage domestic production is the major policy option recommended to bring a good economic performance with lower distortion since we cannot abolish distortion when we conduct tax reform. Key words: Ethiopia, tax reform, tax revenue, macroeconomics performance, dynamic computable general equilibrium.

Economic evaluation of Chinese electricity price marketization based on dynamic computational general equilibrium model

Climate change is widely acknowledged as a serious threat to global development, and Bangladesh is no exception; without a doubt, global warming has placed Bangladesh among the most vulnerable countries. The motivation behind this paper is to examine the effects of climate change by taking into account the changes in temperature and precipitation over time. This paper first evaluates the climate change impact on crop production by using a crop modeling framework and then constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The result of this study finds that average gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by −6.17% and investment declines by −7.76% due to the climate change impact. The impacts of climate change on rice sectors were felt more intensely, increasing prices by 5.82 and 8.11%, reducing output by −3.08 and −3.7% collectively in 2030 and 2050. The agricultural sectors’ output declined more compared to the manufacturing, mining and gas, construction, service and transportation sectors, which indicates declines in agricultural labor and household income. In conclusion, the impact of climate change by analyzing the computable general equilibrium model in Bangladesh had been paid little attention in the past and this paper tried to fill the gaps and provide policy-makers with crucial information and guide government policies.

Rapid industrialisation and urbanisation are expected to continue in China. Energy efficiency improvement (EEI), namely reducing the national energy intensity, is a very important energy conservation and carbon emission reduction index for China. China has adopted measures to improve energy efficiency and achieve the objectives of the 11th Five Year Plan. (The central government of China planned to reduce the GDP-based energy intensity of China by 20 % in 2006–10.) In 2005, an input-output structural decomposition analysis showed a decline in energy savings and emission reductions (ESER) in the energy sector of 33 and 34 % respectively, in the total production-related energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further, by using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China, my research team and I analysed the potential effect of EEI on ESER over the period of 2013 to 2030. Based on the decrease in energy intensity from 2010 to 2030, we considered three scenarios: baseline (decrease by 9 %); moderate (decrease by 44 %); and ambitious (decrease by 68 %). Compared to the baseline scenario, EEI in the moderate scenario will gain 36.1 billion tons of coal equivalent standard (BTce) of energy savings and 21.0 billion tons of carbon equivalent (BTC) carbon emission reductions for China. The ambitious scenario will result in 48.4 BTce of energy savings and 28.2 BTC of carbon emission reductions for China. More than half of the ESER are from electricity and heat production and distribution sectors.

This study analyzes the effects of technological progress for energy intensity and energy use related carbon dioxide emissions during urbanization in China by a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The parameters about technological progress and urbanization are all exogenously given. The impacts of technological progress on economic growth, energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions during period from 2002 to 2030 are examined. Simulation results show that gradually pushing energy efficiency related technologies through appropriate policy incentives is the key to realize low-carbonized development while promoting economic growth in China.