A dynamical map to describe COVID-19 epidemics.

Abstract

Nonlinear dynamics perspective is an interesting approach to describe COVID-19 epidemics, providing information to support strategic decisions. This paper proposes a dynamical map to describe COVID-19 epidemics based on the classical susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) differential model, incorporating vaccinated population. On this basis, the novel map represents COVID-19 discrete-time dynamics by adopting three populations: infected, cumulative infected and vaccinated. The map promotes a dynamical description based on algebraic equations with a reduced number of variables and, due to its simplicity, it is easier to perform parameter adjustments. In addition, the map description allows analytical calculations of useful information to evaluate the epidemic scenario, being important to support strategic decisions. In this regard, it should be pointed out the estimation of the number deaths, infection rate and the herd immunization point. Numerical simulations show the model capability to describe COVID-19 dynamics, capturing the main features of the epidemic evolution. Reported data from Germany, Italy and Brazil are of concern showing the map ability to describe different scenario patterns that include multi-wave pattern with bell shape and plateaus characteristics. The effect of vaccination is analyzed considering different campaign strategies, showing its importance to control the epidemics.