Abstract
<p>A system dynamics method to assess carrying capacity of a defined natural environment is presented. The proposed method seeks to relate per capita resource usage to ranges of population and per capita consumption beyond which the system is not viable relative to population dependent resource constraints. It provides a platform to investigate system behavior through system dynamics simulations where populations change, natural resources decay due to stressor impacts, and feedback occurs via implementation of policy. Application of the model to a case study of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) of phosphorous in Bear Lake, a Lake Michigan estuary (USA), shows the major total phosphorous (P) loading contribution is anthropogenic land use development. Three scenarios are quantitatively explored by assuming changes in land use and/or loading rates. Simulation results show tradeoffs between reduction of total P and land use; economic development can be flexibly evaluated against targets of loading reduction trajectories.</p>
Highlights
This study develops a modeling methodology that can be used to assess the carrying capacity metric of a defined natural environment
It provides a platform to investigate system behavior through system dynamics simulations where populations change, natural resources decay due to stressor impacts, and feedback occurs via implementation of policy
A policy should be considered in the context of how it adapts to long-term changes in available natural resources and stakeholder priorities
Summary
This study develops a modeling methodology that can be used to assess the carrying capacity metric of a defined natural environment. Using the ecological concept of carrying capacity as an indicator, this model and theory will be used to simulate the outcomes of a policy over time by recognizing the coupled relationship between per capita consumption and the total population in a limited resource domain In this case, the model is used to describe the relationship between eutrophication of water bodies and the socioeconomic roots of the stressors. The fundamental contributions of the present paper are as follows: 1) the method uses a system dynamics model in conjugation with ideas from viability theory to address the tradeoffs between per capita consumption and population in a limited resource domain It furthers the idea of the carrying capacity metric to provide practical decision-support; 2) the model explicitly ties stakeholder preferences and their impact on consumption and sustainable use of public resources to policy; 3) the model allows dynamic simulation to explore the outcomes of a policy over a period of time. The methods developed in this paper can be extended to study different problems of sustainability in a broader context of differing levels of economic development that can be formulated within the limited resource consumption framework
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