A dynamic ecological–economic modeling approach for aquaculture management

Bridging Troubled Waters: China, Japan, and Maritime Order in the East China Sea. By James Manicom. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2014. Softcover: 266pp. In this book, James Manicom contests the orthodox view that the strategic rivalry between China and Japan will escalate into a full-blown military conflict. The book concedes that the East China Sea will be the likely medium for Sino-Japanese military rivalry and cyclical tensions will persist; however, it makes the compelling case that cooperation will endure. The book explores the intriguing between China and Japan, which has been paradoxically characterized by deep economic interdependence, yet beleaguered by periodic tensions over their maritime disputes, lingering strategic mistrust and even brinkmanship. The book examines the origins, nature and durability of cooperation between China and Japan despite historical and existing conflicting interests between the two countries. The author interrogates an interesting question in International Relations theory on how China and Japan have avoided conflict over their maritime disputes, notwithstanding the seemingly incessant military posturing and sabre-rattling at sea and yet managed to cooperate while resisting settlement of underlying issues. The book explores this central point in depth by comparing five attempts at cooperation in the East China Sea in the areas of disputed sovereignty, fisheries management, marine surveys, and hydrocarbon resource development. Throughout the book, Manicom makes it clear that he does not share the cynicism expressed by scholars that disputes over resource-rich maritime space are fundamentally prone to conflict. Indeed, lurking in every corner of the book is Manicom's insightful, if but slightly overarticulated, thesis that, contrary to pessimistic assessments, the two countries have been able to cooperate on contested jurisdiction when material issues have been separate from the more symbolic aspects of their relationship (p. 11). This is not to disparage the central empirical finding of the book, however. In fact, the simplicity of Manicom's proposition belies its innovation. The focus of the book on cooperation, while not an entirely novel approach, is quite refreshing in the study of China-Japan maritime relations. His thesis also leaves the reader cautiously optimistic, which is a rare commodity these days. In order to support the book's provocative core insights, Manicom presents important and interesting case studies that reveal historical commonalities worthy of sustained reflection. The first case study (Chapter 2) examines the dynamics of crisis and tension management in the context of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute, and the collapse of Deng Xiaoping's formulaic modus vivendi to focus on joint development instead of actively pursuing sovereignty claims. The second case study, in Chapter 3, assesses the China-Japan agreement on fisheries--signed in 1997 and which came into force in 2000--which illustrates an example of reciprocal cooperation over an area of mutual interest. The third case study (Chapter 4), explores the 2001 notification agreement over marine surveys in disputed waters. The fourth case study in Chapter 5, traces the confrontational dynamics of resource development in the East China Sea, principally a resource exploitation agreement in 2008, which to date has yet to be implemented. In his analysis of these case studies, Manicom's basic argument is that cooperation underwritten by mutually shared economic interests is easier to achieve compared to cooperation based on strategic issues. In this regard, putting the above cases of cooperation in a continuum, the fisheries agreement is both robust and durable, while the notification agreement is less successful relative to the 2001 resource development agreement. …

The increased territorial conflicts in the center of the maritime South and East China Seas have ramifications for Asian regional stability. The area is resource-rich, strategically placed along waterways, and has indisputable oil and natural gas reserves. There had also been a perceived change in the international system built by the United States during World War II, with China attempting to replace it as the regional power. China's behavior toward the remaining claimants, as well as to some extent toward other foreign parties in the conflicts, is examined using ideas from International Relations and case studies from International Law. Employing a qualitative research design, the author attempted to analyze the territorial dispute in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. This paper explains how the islands are strategically located near commercial fishing grounds, major shipping channels, and undiscovered oil and gas potential and how the issue is linked to China's preservation of national sovereignty, while the remaining claimant states perceive it as an incursion by the approaching menace of China. Whoever gains control of the islands eventually gains control of a major portion of East China and South China Seas' economic resources.

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.

A stratus-sea fog event that occurred over the Yellow and East China Seas on 3 June 2011 is investigated using observations and a numerical model, with a focus on the effects of background circulation and Sea Surface Temperature Front (SSTF) on the transition of stratus into sea fog. Southerly winds of a synoptic high-pressure circulation transport water vapor to the Yellow Sea, creating conditions favorable for sea fog/stratus formation. The subsidence from the high-pressure contributes to the temperature inversion at the top of the stratus. The SSTF forces a secondary circulation within the ABL (Atmospheric Boundary Layer), the sinking branch of which on the cold flank of SSTF helps lower the stratus layer further to reach the sea surface. The cooling effect over the cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence. The secondary circulation becomes weak and the fog patches are shrunk heavily with the smoothed SSTF. A conceptual model is proposed for the transition of stratus into sea fog over the Yellow and East China Seas. Finally, the analyses suggest that sea fog frequency will probably decrease due to the weakened SSTF and the reduced subsidence of secondary circulation under global warming.

There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries economics. Explicitly, the economic response of fleet segments to changes in stock development is analysed by applying observed values and stochastic recruitment. The optimization of net profits determines the fishing effort and the investment and disinvestment behaviour of fleet segments, which, in turn, affect the level of catch rates and discards. This tool was applied to the North Sea saithe fishery, where ICES re-evaluated the existing EU–Norway management plan, focusing on biological reference points only. Two scenarios were tested with alternative harvest control rules and then contrasted with one unregulated scenario with no quotas and driven by optimizing the net profit of the whole fleet. The model showed the success of both harvest control rules in rebuilding the stock and the associated costs to the fleets in terms of maximal 21% reduction in net profits, 21% reduction in crew wages and 11% reduction in fleet size in the midterm (2007–2015). In the long term (2022), successful stock recovery coincided with net profits almost equalling that of the unrestricted fishery. The model is highly sensitive to the parameter values but can be used strategically, providing a qualitative understanding of the anticipated relative changes.

There is a need to facilitate decision making on integrated water resource management (IWRM) issues, minimise leakages from and further close the integrated total water cycle (ITWC). The complex social, economic and environmental dimensions and the scarcity of the resource make water management one of the truly “wicked” environmental management problems (cf. Rittel & Webber 1973). This study seeks to contribute to the resolution of this IWRM problem by adding a new definition of IWRM and providing analytical tools for the assessment of water catchments issues, conditions and improving management. A multidisciplinary integrated approach assisted in understanding and managing the complex dynamic multidimensional nature of water and its use. To advance this aim, a new conceptual model for catchment scale IWRM was developed then applied and refined, based on case studies. A review of literature reveals inconsistencies and complexities in the application of IWRM and approaches to minimising leakages from the ITWC. This study has developed an ITWC conceptual sub-model that demonstrates the capacity to incorporate the principles and theory of other disciplines such as hydrogeology, ecological economics and political science into the IWRM conceptual model. The new IWRM conceptual model determined the key components of IWRM using a case study of the Lockyer Valley in South East Queensland, Australia. Further international cases challenged and provided additional insights into these key components using the complex and interconnected dimensions of an IWRM conceptual model – environment, economic, social and policy. A mixed methodology combining quantitative and qualitative secondary data from the case study of the Lockyer Valley during the millennium drought (1997-2009) assisted development of a new catchment scale IWRM conceptual model and key IWRM components. The Lockyer Valley is a primary supplier of agricultural produce to eastern Australia, and contains the headwaters of the downstream Brisbane River catchment. The Lockyer Valley is primarily dependent on groundwater for irrigation, which it continues to draw upon in excess of its sustainable yield. Despite nearly 20 years of research and investigation into the Lockyer Valley and over 60 reports, research papers and consultancies, many of its IWRM issues remain unresolved. This case study was enhanced by a comparison with international cases of IWRM, which assisted in the developing and refining of a contemporary IWRM conceptual model, approach, definition and principles for worldwide application. This study advances water management using an IWRM conceptual approach that further closes the ITWC by focusing on urban-rural IWRM opportunities, going beyond using recycled water for irrigation. This model differs from previous models as it focuses on the ITWC rather than the natural water cycle. The limits of the environment are a feature of this approach, along with recognition of the role of social capital, policy input from government and non- government sectors, ecological economic theory and principles, and hydrogeological modelling for a catchment scale conceptual IWRM model, thus setting it apart from previous models in literature. These additions bring a wider perspective to IWRM decision making and assist in the management of ongoing issues of changes in climate, growing demand for irrigation water, population growth, environmental demand for water and excess wastewater. Such issues affect IWRM worldwide.

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

Restructuring of electricity supply industry had begun in early 20th centuries. Malaysia Electricity Supply Industry (MESI) has aimed to change its structure to a wholesale market model in 2005. Started in 1992, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) were introduced and since then MESI had applied the Single Buyer Model until today. Even though, the Single Buyer Model had passed several process of evolution, it still a form of imperfect competition in which there is only one buyer and many sellers of a product. Therefore, other alternatives of electricity market model for MESI have been proposed, in order to carry on the MESI previous plan towards restructuring. This paper discusses three electricity market models; Single Buyer Market Model, Pool Market Model and Hybrid Market Model. The case study is carried out to compare the three market models in term of generation revenue. Data from 14 IPP and load profiles in MESI is used for the case study and the result will be discussed.

It has been reported that the sea surface temperature (SST) trend of the East China Sea during the twentieth century was a couple of times larger than the global mean SST trend. However, the detailed spatial structure of the SST trend in the East China Sea and its mechanism have not been understood. The present study examines the SST trend in the East China Sea from 1901 to 2010 using observational data and a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-resolving horizontal resolution. A comparison among two observational datasets and the model output reveals that enhanced SST warming occurred along the Kuroshio and along the coast of China over the continental shelf. In both regions, the SST trends were the largest in winter. The heat budget analysis using the model output indicates that the upper-layer temperature rises in both regions were induced by the trend of ocean advection, which was balanced in relation to the increase of surface net heat release. In addition, the rapid SST warming along the Kuroshio was induced by the acceleration of the Kuroshio. Sensitivity experiments revealed that this acceleration was likely caused by the negative wind stress curl anomalies over the North Pacific. In contrast, the enhanced SST warming along the China coast resulted from the ocean circulation change over the continental shelf by local atmospheric forcing.

Evaluation of different wind resources in simulating wave height for the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYES) with SWAN model

Evaluating and modeling ecosystem service loss of coal mining: A case study of Mentougou district of Beijing, China

General Background: In the wake of adopting IFRS 9, commercial banks are required to apply a forward-looking approach in estimating credit losses, aiming to enhance financial transparency and risk management. Specific Background: Iraqi private commercial banks have faced significant challenges in adapting to this paradigm, particularly due to volatile economic conditions and operational inefficiencies. Knowledge Gap: Despite IFRS 9's relevance, limited empirical analysis exists on how expected credit losses (ECL) affect profitability in emerging markets like Iraq. Aims: This study investigates the impact of ECL on net profit among a sample of Iraqi private commercial banks between 2021 and 2023, focusing on compliance with IFRS 9 and its effect on financial performance. Results: The findings reveal that higher ECLs significantly reduce net profits, especially in banks with high default rates and inconsistent risk practices. Additionally, discrepancies in IFRS 9 compliance contributed to inaccuracies in loss estimations. Novelty: Unlike previous research, this study provides a detailed sector-specific empirical analysis linking regulatory standards to profitability outcomes in a high-risk economic environment. Implications: Strengthening compliance with IFRS 9, enhancing disclosure, and reforming regulatory provisions could mitigate the adverse effects of ECL on profit, thereby reinforcing financial stability in Iraq's banking sector.Highlights: IFRS 9 impact – Adoption of IFRS 9 led to a forward-looking loss model, affecting how banks recognize credit losses and report profits. Profit reduction – Higher expected credit losses correlate directly with decreased net profits, especially in banks with weak credit risk management. Disclosure gaps – Variations in compliance and lack of transparency in financial disclosures hinder effective decision-making and risk evaluation Keywords: Expected Credit Losses, IFRS 9, Net Profit, Private Banks, Credit Risk

Regional sea level variability in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea

This chapter addresses the issue of the Global South external debt by mobilizing insights from Modern Monetary Theory, Ecological Economics, and Dependency Theory. It argues that the external debt problem of Southern governments is a reflection of their subordinate economic and monetary status. It shows why the argument of foreign currency shortage often used to explain the need for Southern governments to issue foreign currency debts remains superficial. In contrast to the usual focus on creditors, the chapter highlights the role played by foreign direct investment in the genesis of the chronic external indebtedness of most Southern countries. It argues then that the external debt of the South must be understood holistically not only as a manifestation of the unequal ecological exchange between the North and the South but also as an instrument that has contributed to reproducing and amplifying this pattern. Under these conditions, the cancellation or restructuring of the South's external debt stock and a few other unlikely concessions by the Northern countries will not be enough to abolish the “debt system.” This is an important lesson from the antiimperialist critique of the mid-1970s New International Economic Order (NIEO) agenda that current movements for Southern debt cancellation and Climate Justice would do well to remember.

Exploitable carrying capacity and potential biomass yield of sectors in the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and East Sea/Sea of Japan large marine ecosystems