Abstract
The present study constructed a motor vehicle pollution charging management model by primarily reducing the trip volume of motor vehicles, introducing the charging mechanism, and employing integration of the system dynamics and grey model theory (SD-GM) from the perspective of the environment and society. To optimize the chosen parameters, the dynamic growth rate graphical function of the gross domestic product (GDP) was firstly generated based on the GM(1,1) prediction theory. In addition, verification was conducted in accordance with the degree of grey incidence. Secondly, the net migration rate was estimated based on the attraction degree of the city and the average net migration rate. The degree of PMx and NOx pollution was finally defined and endowed with different weights to define the degree of air pollution in accordance with the actual degree of air pollution in Beijing. In terms of model testing and verification, we conducted extreme condition tests and sensitivity tests and checked the residual error. Finally, this study analyzed and compared different policies, which indicate that the amount of motor vehicle trips (AMVT), the amount of PMx generation (APMG), the amount of NOx generation (ANOG), and the degree of air pollution (DAP) decreased by 31.01%, 26.52%, 21.29%, and 12.50%, respectively.
Highlights
With the continuous improvement of living standards and accelerated urbanization in China, transportation demands have rapidly increased
A series of measures have been implemented to reduce the amount of motor vehicle trips (AMVT) to alleviate urban traffic jams and further constrain the degree of air pollution (DAP)
According to a comparison on the different schemes, at the end of the analogue simulation period, the high charge policy functioned as follows: in terms of the emission reduction of the motor vehicle exhaust, the amount of PMx generation (APMG) and amount of NOx generation (ANOG) exhibited reductions of 26.52% and 21.29%, respectively; in terms of alleviating traffic jams, the AMVT exhibited a 31.01% decrease; and in terms of reducing the degree of air pollution, the DAP exhibited a 12.50% decrease
Summary
With the continuous improvement of living standards and accelerated urbanization in China, transportation demands have rapidly increased. Traffic jams and vehicle-induced exhaust gas pollution have become increasingly serious and influence traffic safety and the normal travel of residents and result in air pollution, such as haze. This paper introduces the charging mechanism and increased vehicle trip costs by charging to reduce vehicle trips and PMx and NOx emissions. It proposes a reduction management model for vehicle pollutant emissions on the basis of integrated system dynamics and the grey model theory (SD-GM approach), which can realize a long-term and dynamic simulation analysis
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