A decomposition analysis of the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among individuals aged 60 and above, 1990-2019: a global perspective

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Objectives: To calculate the age-standardized incidence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, and mortality rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among individuals aged ≥60 years globally from 1990 to 2019, and analyze their trends. To assess the impact of population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes on global changes in COPD incidence, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years. Methods: The data were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI). Through decomposition analysis, the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years globally were attributed to three main factors: population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes. The contributions of these different factors were analyzed to identify the important factor driving the changes. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, DALY rate, and mortality rate of COPD in the global population aged ≥60 years all showed a decreasing trend, with AAPCs of -0.12% (95%UI: -0.13%--0.11%), -1.69% (95%UI: -1.80%--1.58%), and -1.77% (95%UI: -1.89%--1.64%), respectively. The overall contributions of population growth, changes in age structure, and epidemiological changes to the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths in the global population aged ≥60 years were 5.631 million (112.55%), 14.315 million person-years (33.08%), and 799 400 (35.76%), respectively. Specifically, the contributions of population growth were 5.643 million (112.80%), 39.774 million person-years (91.92%), and 2.078 million (92.93%) for incidence, DALYs, and deaths, respectively. The contributions of changes in age structure were 3.228 million (6.45%), 2.231 million person-years (5.15%), and 265 600 (11.88%) for incidence, DALYs, and deaths, respectively. The contributions of epidemiological changes were -335 200 (-6.70%), -27.690 million person-years (-64.00%), and -1.544 million (-69.05%) for incidence, DALYs and deaths, respectively. Conclusions: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence, DALY rate, and mortality of COPD in individuals aged ≥60 years showed a general downward trend while the combined factors, including contribution of population growth, age structure, and epidemiological features, showed positive impacts on the changes in the number of COPD cases, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years. The largest impact was on the number of cases. Specifically, population growth had the highest contribution ratio to the changes in COPD incidence, DALYs, and deaths among individuals aged ≥60 years, while epidemiological changes had a negative contribution.