Abstract
AbstractAimThe anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss.LocationBolivia, Brazil and Paraguay.MethodsWe modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs.ResultsWe found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions.Main conclusionsThe low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.
Highlights
Despite Earth has experienced several natural climatic fluctuations throughout geological time, the rate of contemporary climate change has boosted due to the impacts of human activities (Diffenbaugh & Field, 2013)
We evaluated the effect of climate change using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
We demonstrated that climate and land use could cause great dam‐ age to the Cerrado flora by the years 2050 and 2080, even under the more optimistic scenarios of change
Summary
Despite Earth has experienced several natural climatic fluctuations throughout geological time, the rate of contemporary climate change has boosted due to the impacts of human activities (Diffenbaugh & Field, 2013). The increase of human demand for food and energy has led to the conversion of large areas of natural cover into production lands (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012) and, conse‐ quently, most of the world's land area is ecologically compro‐ mised (Foley et al, 2005; Newbold et al, 2016). The effects of both climate change and loss of natural cover compromise bio‐ logical diversity and human well‐being (Hautier et al, 2015; Pecl et al, 2017). A new climate and the expansion of production lands already challenge biodiversity conservation worldwide
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