A consistent terminology to communicate ground-related uncertainty

Abstract

Engineering geology is highly affected by uncertainty related to geology, geotechnical parameters, models and methods. While the technical aspects of ground-related uncertainty are increasingly well investigated, the terminology to communicate uncertainty - e.g., “It is likely that X will happen.” - has not yet been unified and experts use it however they see fit. Due to varying experience, personal biases and societal backgrounds, people may understand uncertainty statements very differently, which is misleading and can even result in legal disputes. This contribution investigates the usage of uncertainty communicating terminology in ground-related disciplines and finds that there is a pronounced prevalence of uncertainty terminology in them. Furthermore, there is a special need to express uncertainty related to quantities (e.g. “most of the project area consists of…”). In response, we propose a framework to consistently communicate ground-related uncertainty encompassing three steps: 1. When you are certain about a statement, do not use uncertainty communicating language. 2. Assess and state the degree of confidence in a statement based on the quantity and quality of the available evidence vs. the agreement of the evidence. 3. If you have high or very high confidence in the statement, communicate the uncertainty in a consistent manner, otherwise elaborate how higher confidence can be achieved. The proposed approach feeds into new uncertainty-aware standards, such as Eurocode 7, and goes beyond them by addressing uncertainty in text and speech. This paper provides the premises for increased awareness of uncertainty communication and encourages further works on the topic.