A computer-aided scenario analysis of national and regional energy systems based on feasible technology options

Abstract

Abstract We developed a method for analysing scenarios of future energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options based on an energy flow model. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems. In this study, we applied this model into the future energy-system design in regional and national boundaries of Japan. The combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as decentralized solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. Through case studies on national and regional energy systems, it was demonstrated that the contribution of technologies to, e.g., the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, should be carefully examined by quantitative analyses of interdependencies of the technology options for actual decision-making on energy systems. A micro grid incorporating renewable resources including solar, wind, and biomass can be optimized by implementing industrial symbiosis, which can be strategically designed through energy flows simulation by developed model.