Abstract
In this paper, we present a malaria transmission model with periodic birth rate and age structure for the vector population. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio for this model and then show that there exists at least one positive periodic state and that the disease persists when $\mathcal{R}_0>1$. It is also shown that the disease will die out if $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, provided that the invasion intensity is not strong. We further use these analytic results to study the malaria transmission cases in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Some sensitivity analysis of $\mathcal{R}_0$ is performed, and in particular, the potential impact of climate change on seasonal transmission and populations at risk of the disease is analyzed.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
