A Broad Perspective on Automated CME Tracking: Towards Higher Level Space Weather Forecasting

Abstract

We discuss our current capabilities to deliver the CME parameters required for the space weather forecasting process. The ever growing importance of space weather has lead to new requirements on the timeliness and objectiveness of CME detection. It has become indispensable to report the occurrence of Earth-directed CMEs and to predict their possible impact on the geospace environment. Early 2005, we are on the eve of a new era in space weather forecasting. We point out the restricted accuracy on the current forecasts and discuss a chance for amelioration. This invokes data-driven models (empirical and numerical), triggered by a real-time CME disturbance, simulating the propagation and interaction of the ejection with the ambient solar wind. We discuss the link between the direct observable parameters (like the CME projected speed and angle around the occulter) and the required input parameters (like radial speed, direction, ...). The only way to guarantee the real-time value of the simulations is by employing software which autonomously detect CME parameters in a variety of data. This paper focusses on the automated CME detection algorithms that are currently available. Automated CME tracking is yet in its infancy, therefore this 'review' will be an outlook on the potential of this field rather than looking back on already achieved milestones.