A 10 años de Vaca Muerta: análisis del régimen fiscal petrolero y la apropiación de la renta petrolera en Argentina y la región

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, for some OECD countries we econometrically select the fiscal policy regimes, i.e. a "set of rules" for the conduct of fiscal policy. Second, we identify different types of fiscal policy shocks related to expenditure and taxation, and simulate their effects on GDP and the price level. Estimation and simulation are obtained within the structural VAR framework. We found that France and Italy are characterized by fiscal regimes that target either the government expenditure on salaries and transfers, or the residual spending. For Germany and the US instead the selected fiscal regimes exclude any (contemporaneous) influence of innovations in government wages and transfers on both taxation and residual spending, i.e. decisions on government wages and transfers do not precede other fiscal-policy decisions. Except for France, government expenditure on salaries and transfers has the strongest procyclical effect on output, but lower than expected: a one percent decrease in public spending on wages and transfers (as a ratio of GDP) lowers output at most by 0.1 percent. Innovations on taxes that decrease fiscal pressure have the standard positive effect on output, but not in the long run.

Oil companies regularly examine the potential after-tax profits derivable from an investment before investing. A Country’s fiscal regime is therefore central to achieving this goal. Angola like other sub-Saharan African Countries with large proven reserves is concerned with attracting foreign direct investment to its oil sector with a view to capturing maximum resource rent for the benefit of its populace, the investor on the other hand is focused on making profits. To attract and maintain investment, the Host Government (HG) is expected to establish a fiscal regime founded on the principle of neutrality which suggests that taxes that are capable of influencing the investor’s decision in the allocation of resources should not be imposed. The divergent interests between these two groups may not be accommodated adequately by neutral taxes, as a result, fiscal systems are better modeled around the efficiency principle which focuses on assigning investment resources with regard to national objectives. This discourse will focus on assessing Angola’s fiscal regime by critically analyzing its effect on investor’s decision particularly as it relates to oil production and Government revenue and by examining the ways Angola has attempted to balance its interest with the investor’s. The paper concludes by drawing the point that neutrality should be one of the factors for consideration and not necessity the leading objective because other factors like geological potential and the political economy of the country can have significant impact on investment decisions.

Petroleum fiscal regime defines the extent to which the host government and the prospective investor can apportion risks and share project rewards. Ghana's petroleum industry has become an attractive place for most investors because the current fiscal regime governing the industry is based on old petroleum tax laws and systems and doesn't capture wind-fall profit. In this paper the petroleum fiscal regime currently used in Ghana was modelled, reviewed and evaluated. A proposed progressive fiscal regime was then put forward which has a slidingscale royalty tied to production to increased the government share (GTake). The models incorporated successfully Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software to account for risk and uncertainties in decision making. This study addresses the petroleum industry structure and performance of the modelled fiscal regimes of Ghana. An optimum fiscal regime should be efficient, effective and equitable. The fiscal regime optimality were evaluated by testing the IRR which accounts for the efficiency, FLI which accounts for effectiveness and GTake which accounts for equity in order to achieve pareto optimality. Other range of profitability indicators were also tested in the economic evaluation and they are contractor's take (CTake), Net present value (NPV), Profitability index (PI), Present value ratio (PVR). The deterministic result of the analysis shows that, the government take (GTake) increased when the proposed fiscal regime was put forward from 30.15% to 69.85%. The Internal rate of return (IRR) for the fixed royalty is 21% and the sliding scale royalty is 16%. Both values are positive which means there is value for every dollar invested. This study will help both investors and Government in decision making.

Macroeconomic policies consist of monetary, fiscal and structural policy sets implemented by countries to ensure sustainable economic growth, ensure price stability, increase employment and maintain external balance. These policies vary depending on the economic structures, resource compositions, vulnerability to external shocks and long-term development goals of countries. In this context, a comparative examination of the macroeconomic policy preferences of Azerbaijan, an energy exporter in the South Caucasus, and Türkiye, a regional production and trade center, allows for a better understanding of the economic opportunities and limitations faced by both countries. The Azerbaijani economy is largely based on oil and natural gas exports. This increases the dependence on energy prices in terms of public finance and external balance; it also makes economic growth sensitive to external shocks. In this context, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) tries to maintain economic stability through fiscal buffer mechanisms based on oil revenues while keeping inflation under control. Fiscal policy is supported by budget transfers made through SOFAZ (State Oil Fund); social expenditures are directed to strategic spending areas such as infrastructure investments and the reconstruction of Karabakh. However, non-oil budget deficit and public inefficiency are among the main factors that complicate the structural transformation process. The Turkish economy, on the other hand, has a structure shaped more by internal dynamics. High and chronic inflation, exchange rate volatility and external debt dependency are among the determining factors in Türkiye's macroeconomic policy preferences. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has prioritized the fight against inflation by implementing tight monetary policy as of 2024. During the same period, the government has been implementing expansionary fiscal policies in order to encourage growth. While this situation has caused public deficits to increase, it is aimed to re-establish fiscal discipline with the reforms made in the tax system. In addition, Türkiye's strategic steps such as openness to the outside world, investment incentives and structural reforms to solve the current account deficit problem are noteworthy. This study aims to evaluate the economic governance approaches of the two countries in an analytical framework by comparatively examining the monetary policy, fiscal policy, structural reform framework and inflation and growth dynamics of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. This analysis clarifies the relationship between policy choices and macroeconomic outcomes, providing a comparative perspective for decision makers and researchers. Keywords: Azerbaijan, Türkiye, macroeconomics, macro policy, economic policy

Production strategy is an important component of the oil reservoir development phase. Among, the main parameters are the geometry, number and position of wells and platform liquid capacity, influencing the level of the project investment required, which all depend on geological characteristics, economic scenarios and fiscal regimes. In the oil industry, companies produce under a fiscal system imposed by the government, which has a strong impact on economic and operational indicators, influencing production strategy. Recently, the Brazilian government established a law changing its fiscal terms on pre-salt areas from Royalty and Tax (R&T) to Production Sharing Contract (PSC) to increase the government take. Previous works have shown that, in optimistic scenarios, an optimal recovery strategy presents low discrepancy in the production strategy configuration across both fiscal regimes. This study considers four economic scenarios for further evaluation. For this purpose, a simulation model was submitted to the production strategy selection process for both fiscal systems. In more pessimistic economic scenarios, the results indicate that the number of wells and the level of investment tend to be lower under PSC than under R&T system. Thus, the new system could lead to fewer industrial investments, which would reduce the government return compared to the former tax system. In the most pessimistic scenario considered, profitable production could be expected under R&T, while under PSC it would be unprofitable, generating lower revenues. It is still not clear whether a company, under PSC, will also be able to develop its strategy plan based on NPV or whether negotiation with the government regarding a minimum oil recovery factor will take place. Regardless, this study identifies the impact on production strategy selection for the new Brazilian PSC system compared to optimized strategy for R&T, and in both cases the objective-function is the company's NPV. From the company's point of view, depending on the economic scenario, the prevailing fiscal system will influence decisions at the level of the investment to be made. The results show the importance of considering the impact of the new fiscal system when selecting production strategies.

Active and passive fiscal policies Fiscal policy has changed radically since the 1960s and 1970s when it tried to micro-manage, if not fine-tune, all aggregate demand and assumed an accommodating monetary policy; and it changed from the 1980s when it was passive, but was used to strengthen the economy's supply-side responses while monetary policies actively pursued low inflation and stable growth. The 1990s saw a return to more activist fiscal policies. But this time the policies were designed together with equally active monetary policies to gain a series of medium- to long-term objectives – low public debt, the provision of a certain level of public services and investment, and social equality and economic efficiency. The income-stabilizing aspects of fiscal policy were left largely passive, to act through the automatic stabilizers which are the endogenous part of any fiscal system. Monetary policy, meanwhile, was designed to take care of short-run stabilization around the cycle; that is, beyond what, predictably, would or could be achieved by automatic stabilizers. The recent financial crisis has again introduced the need for active fiscal policy to complement monetary policy, but in a sense opposite to that traditionally advocated – that is, in the form of austerity policies to remove excess fiscal deficits and reduce public debt. This was based on an undervaluation of the size of the spending multipliers, which have been shown to be quite large in a situation of generalized low demand and low interest rates (and crucially greater than one, so that each deficit reduction leads to a larger loss in national output and hence rising deficit and debt ratios ). The kind of coordination to be sought between fiscal and monetary policy is one of the issues we discuss in this chapter. We suggest that an improved performance can be obtained if fiscal policy “leads” an independent monetary policy. The form of leadership implied here derives from the fact that fiscal policy typically has long-run targets (sustainability, low debt) and is not easily reversible. In fact, it aims to ensure sustainable public services, social equity, and other long-term goals, which often makes it an ineffective stabilizer. Nevertheless, there are also automatic stabilizers in any fiscal policy framework, implying that monetary policy must condition itself on the fiscal stance at each point. This automatically puts the latter into a follower's role.

Exploration and construction of fiscal and taxation policies to promote the development of marine circular economy

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies

4 Petroleum fiscal regimes: evolution and challenges

در دهه های اخیر نبود انضباط پولی و مالی در کنار وجود انواع نا اطمینانی در مدل سازی و تجزیه و تحلیل داده های آماری، عدم دست یابی به اهداف مشخص را در پی داشته است. در این تحقیق ضمن تشریح مدل تعادل عمومی پویای 21 تصادفی کینزینی جدید، اجزای مدل و توابع نهایی برای اقتصاد ایران استخراج شده است. سپس از نتایج برآورد پارامترهای مدل برای بررسی نا اطمینانی با استفاده از روش بیزینی استفاده شده است. این مدل برای اقتصاد ایران با وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی تنظیم شده است. به دلیل انطباق با شرایط وابسته به نفت اقتصاد ایران، بخش مالی به ص ورت بخش دولت، شوک مخارج و اثرات تغییر منابع درآمدهای دولت شامل مالیات و درآمدهای نفتی در نظر گرفته شده است. برای ساده شدن مدل با فرض کوچک بودن کشور در بازار نفت، قیمت نفت برای اقتصاد داخل به صورت برون زا در نظر گرفته شده است. با توجه به تبدیل درآمد حاصل از فروش نفت خام به پول داخلی، نوسانات دلارهای نفتی و نرخ ارز بر اساس تغییرات حجم پول داخلی بررسی شده است. نتایج توابع عکس العمل آنی متغیرهای تولید غیر نفتی و تورم نشانگر مطابق انتظار بودن مدل تئوری با مشاهدات واقعی است. بر اساس نتایج تابع سیاستی با افزایش تورم، شکاف تولید و حجم نقدینگی، افزایش نرخ بهره یکی از بهترین راه ها برای کاهش بی ثباتی است. بر اساس نتایج نا اطمینانی مدل، عملکرد سیاستی و عکس العم لهای سیاست گذاران با بهبود همراهبوده است. نا اطمینانی مدل در تصریح قواعد سیاستی منطبق با شرایط تعهدی بو ده است . همچنین در حالت وجود دوره های ماندگاری تورم در اقتصاد ایران پاسخ های با وزن بیشتر در دوره اول، پاسخ های بهینه نسبت به حالت پارامترهای مطمئن بوده است.

With plenty of latest discoveries witnessed from East Africa, the petroleum atlas reshaping is expected where some new faces (e.g. Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, etc.) may play emergent roles besides traditional oil countries in Africa. Due to general lack of infrastructure construction and capital investment, it still need some time for large-scale commercial production and the involvement of international oil companies is indispensable in the process. Dramatic price drop has tremendously stricken both governments and international oil companies (IOC) in oil-producing countries since 2014. The effectiveness in which governments and IOCs adjust to this reality will determine the extent and the pace of future development of these countries’ oil sectors. Most IOCs were struggling to cut capital expenditure and control operating cost to survive, and how to maintain and attract investment is regarded as huge challenges by many governments in the downward scenario. Apart from resource factors, petroleum fiscal terms are one of the key factors in the investment decision for IOCs. The attractiveness of fiscal contracts has a fundamental effect on profitability of petroleum projects, and thus an important indicator for evaluating investment feasibility in the country. The paper gives an overview on fiscal transformation in most Africa oil countries, some of them were trying to increase government share in oil profits to support social expenditures, and others have provided fiscal incentives to absorb further investment in the oil sector. It shows that fiscal policies in the countries where national economy relies more on oil revenues are less stable during the past decade. Some upstream projects in Nigeria are illustrated to show the impacts of different contract terms on economic benefits. Thus with new government's coming into power, most IOCs are holding back further investment and expecting negotiation with the authorities for confirmation on fiscal terms applied in their assets to avoid potential contractual risks, like PIB, Side letter, etc. The implications regarding petroleum regime are summarized based on the experience from Nigeria for emerging countries in East Africa, relatively stable fiscal policy with some incentives to encourage exploration activities would be helpful to petroleum industry. Lastly, investment suggestions are presented with priorities to promote business development in the area.

The sudden collapse of oil prices combined with the COVID 19 pandemic is considered to be the worst economic crisis in the history of Resource-Rich Countries. These two events put immense pressure on the economic performance of these countries even with the huge reserves and volume of exports they enjoyed during the past. This raises the question of what are the particularities of these countries that made them very vulnerable to such shocks. This paper is a gathering of multiple studies and reports dealing with the specific topic of Resource-Rich Countries. More precisely, I try to analyze, based on a literature review, the nature of the Fiscal Regime applied in these nations and what makes it different than other countries. In addition, I investigate the Tax Regime applied in Resource-Rich Countries, with an emphasis on observed strengths or weaknesses. I conclude that the Fiscal Regime in Resource-Rich Countries is generally different in many aspects: these countries are subject to severe price volatility, shocks easily affect the economy, and the nature of the Extractive Industry (EI) is very different and needs adequate policy. I also highlight that the Tax System in Resource-Rich Countries is different as well: low investment in human resources and IT and low reliance on tax revenues. This study provides many recommendations to policymakers and authorities in Resource-Rich Countries. The most important is the necessity to implement a Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy. Such a measure can enhance savings during periods of high prices while allowing the government to spend more during periods of crisis. In addition, the paper recommends investing more in the tax administration and enhancing the volume of tax revenues as this can allow more diversification. Many other recommendations are presented to help absorb the shocks caused by a severe drop in commodity prices. This paper is a good reference for experts or researchers in the fields of Fiscal Regimes, Tax Policy, and Resource Riche Countries. It is also useful for any research in the domain of the Extractive Industries as it analyzes many of the aspects related to that industry. Keywords: resource-rich countries, fiscal policy, tax policy, countercyclical fiscal policy, mining.

Editors’ Introduction

It is obvious that the oil sector in Iraq is suffering from major problems related to oil infrastructure, in terms of extraction, production, transport, storage and export outlets. Generally, it is often said that the economic policy including the oil policy, have been failed in setting the short- and long-term plans to manage and best use the oil wealth. Although there are a number of official institutions to manage oil industry in Iraq, there is no competent authority in the area of investment and management of surplus reserves which is deposited in a development fund of Iraq (DFI). It is emphasized that Iraq’s need to invest these reserves, despite the existence of some intersections between the monetary policy and the fiscal policy. Yet, oil revenues, constitute more than 90% of the public budget of the country. On the other hand, the Norway experience has become a successful model in the oil industry among oil export countries, includes the level of extraction, manufacture and export of oil derivatives. it is possible to benefit from its experience in this sector through attempting to apply its oil investment policy and to be guided in all phases of the oil industry. As a result of its remarkable success is achieved in the oil sector, the researcher will study all development stages and the reasons for the success regarding the oil industry in Norway, particularly in term of establishing sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and its role in economic and financial stability

The research aims to analyze the impact of fiscal policy tools on the general index of the Iraq Stock Exchange and how the shocks to which fiscal policy was exposed can affect the general index of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as financial markets are an important source in providing local financing. A tool works to employ surplus funds from economic units and direct them towards productive economic activities to play a role in achieving economic growth. In order to prove the research hypothesis, the time series (2004-2022) was used to measure the impact of fiscal policy shocks on the general index of the Iraq Stock Exchange using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The study concluded that there is a weak impact of fiscal policy tools on the general index of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as both (oil revenues and external debt) affected the general index, while there was no impact for other revenues. The response of the general index to negative shocks for each of (public expenditures, tax revenues, and internal debt) was also clarified. The study recommended the need to diversify the sources of public revenues in order to mitigate the severity of fluctuations to which fiscal policy is exposed, which may be negatively reflected. On the general index of the market, since the financial policy in Iraq depends on one source of financing (the oil sector) in addition to developing the Iraqi financial market to serve the national economy by increasing investment awareness among individuals and local and foreign investors with the aim of attracting foreign capital that works to advance the reality of the Iraqi economy.