Abstract
A coupled 1-D time-dependent radiative-convective-photochemical diffusion model which extends from the surface to 60 km is used to investigate the potential impact of greenhouse trace gas emissions on long-term changes in global climate, atmospheric ozone and surface UV-B radiation, taking into accoont the influence of aerosol loading into the atmosphere from major volcanic eruptions, of thermal inertia of the upper mixed layer of the ocean and of other radiativephotochemical feedback mechanisms. Experiments are carried out under global and annual average insolation and cloudiness conditions. The transient calculations are made for three different growth scenarios for increase in trace gas concentrations. Scenario 1, which begins in 1850, uses the best estimate values for future trace gas concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12 and tropospheric O3, based on current observational trends. Scenarios 2 and 3, which begin in 1990, assume lower and upper ranges, respectively, of observed growth rates to estimate future concentrations.
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