Abstract
This article illustrates the use of bootstrapping to estimate the extent of uncertainty in the regression forecasts of future electricity demand in Pakistan. The point made is that, even under somewhat conservative assumptions of no structural shifts during the forecast period, the extent of uncertainty in the regression forecast is large when the uncertainty in the forecasts of the independent variables is also assumed. This is more obvious in the probability distribution of peak demand. The existing practice of making peak demand forecasts by KESC and WAPDA is based on a simple growth rate. An approach to this study may provide more useful information to these agencies in planning for future capacity and developing demand management policies.
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