231. Validation of the current risk calculators used in spine surgery

Abstract

<h3>BACKGROUND CONTEXT</h3> The ACS-NSQIP and SpineSage are both easy to use and readily available online perioperative risk calculators The ACS-NSQIP calculator predicts perioperative complications after surgery, but lacks more spine-specific predictors. The SpineSage platform was developed as a tool built for predicting complications in spine surgery. While a limited number of studies have shown it be predictive of both overall and major medical complications in spine surgery, large external validation studies are limited and none have directly compared NSQIP against SpineSage in the same cohort of spine surgery patients. <h3>PURPOSE</h3> Assess the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator and SpineSage informatics platform for prediction of perioperative complications in spine surgery <h3>STUDY DESIGN/SETTING</h3> Retrospective. <h3>PATIENT SAMPLE</h3> A total of 440 patients undergoing thoracolumbar spine with or without fusion. <h3>OUTCOME MEASURES</h3> Any complication, serious complication, pneumonia, cardiac, dural tear, SSI, UTI, VTE, reoperation, death and LOS <h3>METHODS</h3> Each patient was entered into the ACS-NSQIP and SpineSage calculators and predicted risk for specific complications were directly compared to actual risks. Paired t-tests compared the differences between calculators and their predictability of complications. Patients were ranked based on risk predicted for each complication and the highest tertile for each was isolated. Multivariate regression controlling for age and gender was used to determine if the highest tertile for each risk calculator had predictability in complications following spine surgery. <h3>RESULTS</h3> Mean LOS 4.2+3 days, EBL 444+300 mL, operative time 256+240 min, and levels instrumented 2.1+2.3. When assessing the four complications predicted by SpineSage there were significant differences in three of the four variables, as SpineSage underpredicted the risk of all and serious-complications (p.5). Both calculator tertiles were trending towards significance for major medical complications (SpineSage: OR: 2.0, [0.94-4.23], p=.073; ACS-NSQIP: OR: 1.8,[0.96-3.48],p=.067). When examining any medical risk, only ACS NSQIP had significant predictability for any medical complication (OR: 2.1, [1.3-3.3]; p=.003). <h3>CONCLUSIONS</h3> Similar to previous studies, the ACS-NSQIP score underpredicted most complications, with the exception of LOS and death. In contrast to previous studies, our data suggest SpineSage was not predictive of actual rates of complications. As both calculators are highly accessible and provide at least some objective perioperative risk data points, we recommend them as a guiding tool but not as an absolute endpoint for clinical decision making as they may be inaccurate and insensitive. Further, higher powered studies elucidating the findings in this study should be conducted. Additionally, the assessment of these calculators for a specific subset of patients, such as deformity, degenerative or pediatrics, can further help guide clinicians regarding the utility of these calculators for their particular patient populations. <h3>FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS</h3> This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.