16. Analysis of Trends in China’s Fast-Growing Economy and Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Targets

Abstract

Economic theoreticians and the central government in the past worried that improvements in environmental protection might reduce the economic growth rate. Chinas experience since 2006, however, proves that economic growth actually accelerated as the central government intensified its measures for energy conservation, emissions reduction, and environmental protection. In 2006, Chinas GDP growth rate was 11.1%, an increase of 48% over the target set under the Eleventh Five-Year Plan; in the first half of 2007, the GDP growth rate climbed to 11.7%, an increase of 56% over the planned target. This chapter combines the abnormal phenomena above to provide an analysis and forecast of Chinas economic growth trends, as well as discusses whether the countrys energy conservation and emission reduction targets can be achieved within the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. Keywords: China; economic growth rate; Eleventh Five-Year Plan; emission reduction; energy conservation; environmental protection; GDP growth rate