Abstract
The multimodel ensemble technique for predicting heavy rain ( 15 mm/12 hours) in the Perm region with a lead time of 15 and 27 hours is analyzed. The quality of precipitation forecasts from GFS, GEM, ICON global hydrodynamic models and from the WRF-ARW model with 3 and 9-km grid spacing is assessed. For the summer of 2019, the GEM was found to provide the highest quality of heavy rain forecasts. The averaging over the ensemble of global models causes a sharp decrease in the number of false alarms and in the probability of detection. The scheme of global models combination consisting in the filtration of the GEM heavy rain forecasts and in the averaging of GFS, GEM, and ICON forecasts at the remaining points is developed. Application of the proposed scheme increases the reliability of short-range forecasts of heavy frontal rains in summer in the Perm region as compared to any separate model.
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