О балансах производства электроэнергии в мире и России

Abstract

The electricity generation balance in the United States, Europe, Russia, and worldwide as of 2018 is considered. The main trends in the these power plants. The following main results are obtained. The capacities commissioned in 2018 amounted to 100 GW (25.1% with respect to 2017) at photovoltaic power plants (PVPP), 51 GW (9.5%) at windmill farms (WMF), 9 GW (9.8%) at biomass fired power plants (BioPP), and 0.5 GW (1.6%) at geothermal power plants (GeoPP). The total installed capacity of RES-based power plants in 2018 reached 1246 GW, including 591 GW at WMFs, 505 GW at PVPPs, 130 GW at BioPPs, and 13.3 GW at GeoPPs. The weighted average values of capacity utilization factors at power plants differ significantly by the RES types and in different countries, and as of late 2016, their weighted average values were as follows on the whole over the world: 0.79 for GeoPPs, 0.75 for BioPPs, 0.3 for WMFs, and 0.165 at PVPPs (in the majority of developed countries, this factor is equal to 0.2). The lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at WMFs has been achieved in the USA, China and Asia, and ranges from $0.055 to $0.06 for kWh; i.e., it has become lower than it is at coal fired power plants in these countries. The lowest LCOE at PVPPs has been achieved in South America ($0.08/kWh), India ($0.08/kWh), and China ($0.1/kWh); i.e., it is approximately equal to the net cost of electricity generation in these countries. The expected share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation in 2020, 2025, and 2030 is equal to 14.25%, 20.43%, and 27.11%, respectively, and taking into account hydroelectric power plants, it is equal to 30.18%, 36.18%, and 42.7%, respectively. In Russia, significant progress in the use of RES has been made for the period 2014 — 2019. According to the Market Council data as of 17.10.2019, 72 solar power plants with a total installed capacity of 982.173 MW are in operation at facilities operating on the basis of photovoltaic conversion. The total capacity of solar power plants in the Orenburg region amounted to 260 MW, and that in the Astrakhan region, 220 MW. The register also contains eight windmill farms with the total installed capacity equal 97.265 MW, including the Ulyanovsk WMF-1 (35 MW) and the Ulyanovsk WMF-2 (50.4 MW—two stages of 25.2 MW each). The «Hevel» group of companies has built a plant for manufacturing photovoltaic modules with an output of 300 MW a year. A domestic complex for producing wind power equipment is under development.