국내 물 산업체의 기후변화 대응현황과 재무적 리스크 분석

Abstract

This study investigated the private sector’s climate change risk, focusing on the financial sector and its risk management, specifically the case of the water industry in Korea. The water industry tends to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and requires adaptation strategies to address potential risks. This study quantified the potential financial risk to the water industry from four extreme weather events: heat waves, cold waves, heavy rain and heavy snow. These events are classified according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, using a business decision supporting tool, the Climate Change Risk Assessment System (CRAS), which was developed by Korea Environment Institute. The results of analysis revealed that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable in responding to climate change risk than large enterprises, that SME manufacturers in particular are the most vulnerable in responding to climate change risk. Of heat waves, cold waves, heavy rain and heavy snow, the greatest climate change-related financial risk was from heat waves. Lost sales due to climate change risk ranged from 152.9 to 210.7 billion won per year on average, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario. Furthermore, when the RCP 8.5 scenario was considered, the scale of financial risk increased to between 250.9 and 345.8 billion won per year. This study provides quantitative information that helps to increase awareness on the financial risks of the water industry from climate change and to explore measures for business adaptation.