Управление рисками гибели людей при пожарах в жилых домах городских поселений

Abstract

The article presents results of studies on the reduction of risk of fire deaths in the homes fires of urban settlements. Each year, the largest number of fires in the Russian Federation is registered in the residential houses, their share of the total number of fires is an average of 70 %. These fires kill more than 92 % of all fatalities. Around 15 % of cases of fires reported in the living rooms of residential houses which kill nearly 70 % of all victims in all fires. The authors conducted a series of studies to identify factors, which affecting to the values of fire deaths risk from fires in homes of urban settlements. As these factors were considered: the response time of fire units; availability of fire detectors in residential buildings; the lifetime of residential buildings. It was found that under the existing conditions, the response time of fire units does not affect the reduction in the fire death risk in homes. As a result of statistical research, which characterizes the effectiveness of fire detectors in residential buildings, it was established that the average fire death risk in such buildings less than 2.5 times than in the other, this fact also confirmed by international experience. In the study of the national urban housing structures it was found that with an increase in the part of houses with long lifetime use (over 40 years), increasing the average risk of fires in these homes and fire death risk. Based on the study of factors affecting to the value of the fire death risk, there were developed models and algorithms to not only reduce the impact of these factors, but also to determine the annual number of prevention of fire deaths. In particular, an algorithm for implementation of reduction (at least 2.5 times) regional fire death risks in homes. Method for socio-economic justification of fire safety measures has been offered. This method based on the evaluation and comparison of the amounts of preventable socio-economic damage to the region’s economy, with corresponding expected costs, relatively to a one preventable fire death. Also, approaches in the field of fire safety, do not involve additional costs both for the owners of residential and budgets of different levels were determined. At the same time, prevent social and economic damage, achieved as a result of the pre-proposed activities greatly exceed the necessary costs after the first 3 years.