인구고령화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study set up the interest rate as the CD interest rate, economic growth and income as the GDP(gross domestic product), and ratio of the elderly population as the ratio of population of over 65 years of age by using reference from the 1st quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2012 to conduct the actual proof analysis on the explanatory correlation of the elderly population rate of the whole country, Seoul, and Gyunggido on the housing market by using the time-series analysis methodology. As a result of the cointegration, every region showed the long-term balance relation that it was composed into the vector error correction model. As a result of the impulse response and forecast error decomposition analysis, every region showed difference by degree, however, the CD interest rate of the apartment unit price showed negative response, GDP showed positive, elderly population showed negative response, and specially, it was identified that the explanation power regarding the effect of the elderly population rate on the apartment unit price was greater in Seoul and Gyunggi compare to other regions in Korea. With this, it was identified that the theory model and substantial model are identical, and verified that the elderly population rate makes negative influence on the housing market and makes specially significant effect on capital areas as Seoul or Gyunggi. It is necessary for the government to establish and progress elderly housing or the rental housing policy accordingly as the population structure becomes an aging society, and it is necessary to establish various supporting plans as the housing market can be stagnated.