動学的最適化モデルによる廃棄物処理・リサイクルのマクロ評価

Abstract

In this study, the dynamic macro economic model, which internalizes the waste generation, disposal and recycling processes in the economic repercussion, is formulated and simulated in the courses of the various waste reduction programs. The authors regard the waste stream as the negative inputs at the stage of production process, material flow accompanied by additional societal costs at the stage of disposal, and potential supply of the positive resources after recycling process. The model simulations, which evaluate wastes internally, show that wastes are processed in the channel of route of not only material recycling but also thermal recycling in place of conventional incineration, due to total cost minimization. When the mass flux of the final disposal is restricted, in the first stage the incineration processing might be preferred, and later the recycling process should be fortified. When the productivity of capital in recycling supply is improved, incineration process is diminished and economic welfare is promoted. When introducing carbon emission reduction policy, power generation capacity in waste incineration plants become to be occupied more 1.1% of total electric supply amount than one in reference scenario in 2030.