МЕТОДЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ДЕНЕЖНЫХ ПОТОКОВ НЕГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫХ КОРПОРАТИВНЫХ СТРУКТУР

Abstract

Global changes in the operating conditions of non-state corporate structures, caused by the forced vacation in the spring of 2020, caused a sharp reduction in cash receipts and sharpened the attention of financiers to determine the future values of receipts, Disposals and cash balances. The author of the article has proved what types of economic and professional interests of the main three groups of users of financial and economic information-owners, top managers and financiers- are associated with the interest in obtaining high-quality information about the future values of cash flows of non-state corporate structures. The article explains why it is appropriate to use the term forecasting rather than planning in relation to predicting the future value of indicators that characterize cash flows. In addition, referring to the opinion of well-known foreign scientists and financial practitioners, the author provides arguments in favor of the fact that forecasting cash flows, rather than profit, is of paramount importance in modern conditions. The author’s definition of the cash flow forecast is given, revealing its content in the following projections: as a result of the process, as a document, as a set of methodological techniques and as a source of information for management decisions. The author conducted a study of theoretically developed and applied in practice methods of forecasting cash flows. In the results, the author systematized by application areas, and briefly described the mechanism for applying the main methods of forecasting cash flows that can be used for modern corporate structures. In particular, the use of the situational analysis method, expert assessment method, and the method of processing spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal aggregates, as well as methods based on their combination and common in modern financial practice, such as forecasting cash flows based on proportional dependencies, was considered; budgeting of cash flows based on the technology of budgeting and cash flow design based on simulating a set of planned business operations on the used versions of accounting programs. In conclusion, the author concludes that there is no ideal method for forecasting cash flows and the need to take into account the information interests of users, the complexity of application, the availability of high-quality information and compliance with the management culture of the corporate structure in which forecasting is performed.