长沙地区太阳能光伏/光热复合家用热水系统经济性分析

Abstract

采用动态系统模拟软件TRNSYS建立4人用水规模的典型家庭光伏/光热复合热水系统模型，以长沙地区的气象参数逐时模拟系统的全年发电和产热量。根据TRNSYS计算结果和当地的电价，对系统进行经济性分析和影响经济性因素的敏感性分析。结果表明：生命周期内该系统在长沙区域使用的动态投资回收期范围为7.6~16 a，能源综合价格现值小于0.3元/KWh，内部收益率范围为11%~24%，具有投资经济可行性。敏感性分析得出，电价增长率和基准折现率对系统的经济性影响较大，系统的经济性随电价增长率增加得到显著提高。 Dynamic system simulation software TRNSYS is adopted to establish the photovoltaic/thermal hybrid domestic hot water system for a typical family scale, for which the hourly meteorological data in Changsha area, Hunan province are used to simulate the annual output of power and heat. Based on the TRNSYS results and the local prices data, the system economic analysis and sensitivity analysis are performed. The results show that the dynamic payback period of investment is 7.6 - 16 a, the present values of comprehensive energy price remain less than 0.3 CNY/KWh, and internal rates of return range from 11% to 24%. The results of economic analysis verify the economic feasibility of the PV/T domestic hot water system. Sensitivity analysis indicate that the annual growth rate of electricity and base discount rate are important factors and the increases of annual growth rate of electricity improve the economic property of the system obviously.