Математические модели поддержки управленческих решений по снижению уровня пожарной опасности в административно-территориальных единицах Вьетнама

Abstract

Purpose. The article classifies and analyzes significant factors affecting fire situation and fire risks in the administrativeterritorial units (ATUs) of Vietnam from 2019 to 2022. Based on this data, mathematical models have been developed to show the relationship between fire risks and influencing factors. Optimal managerial decisions have been formulated to reduce fire risks and the level of fire hazard in Vietnam's ATUs based on the obtained models. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics, systems analysis, and mathematical modeling were used. Findings. The study analyzed statistical data and developed three multiple regression mathematical models showing the dependence of fire risks on significant factors. Research application field. The results of the study can be used to support managerial decisions to ensure fire safety in Vietnam. Conclusions. The analysis of various significant and less significant factors affecting fire situation draws attention to specialists in fire prevention. The developed mathematical models have a sufficiently high level of adequacy and significance. The application of the managerial decisions derived from these models had a positive impact on reducing fire risks and the level of fire hazard in ATUs. Specifically, the risk of human fatalities in fires (Rf) decreased by 22.1%, the risk of injuries from fires (Ri) decreased by 14%, and the risk of direct fire damage (Rd) decreased by 16.1%. The obtained research results enable the improvement of managerial decisions in fire safety operations and reduce fire hazard levels across the country's territories.