시도교육청의 중장기 학령인구 전망을 위한 단기 출생아수 예측

Abstract

This study aims to suggest an alternative that can improve the accuracy of the projection of the number of elementary school students in the mid to long term through the reviews of the school age population projection in the Metropolitan and Province. To this end, the trend of short term 3-year births was forecast and, based on the results, a realistic school age population scenario was projected. The double exponential smoothing method and the ARIMA model were used as methodologies to apply to non-stationary, trend, and short-term time series data. The results of the comparison with actual data confirmed that the ARIMA model had a small error. The mid- to long-term projections of the number of kindergarten and elementary school students were supplemented by a subsidiary indicator of the “number of births”. Based on the results, this study suggests the improvement plans and further research of projections of kindergarten and elementary school students by metropolitan and province. First, the student population projection should be updated annually on a 10-year basis. Second, in further research, it would necessary to actively project and forecast education statistics on the metropolitan (province), city, and district levels. Third, in order to closely understand changes in the school age population in the region, the movement of the school age population and the decrease in the number of students due to low fertility should be closely examined.