Abstract
소비자물가지수는 국가의 중요한 경제 척도 중의 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 4개 도시, 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주지역의 소비자물가지수를 연구하였다. 자료는 모두 통계청에서 발췌하였고, 기간은 1998년-2011년 월별자료이며, 시계열분석 기법인 자기회귀오차모형으로 분석하였다. 소비자물가 분석을 위한 설명변수는 9가지 경제변수인 경기동행지수, 미국환욜, 생산자물가지수, 원유수입단가, 원유수입물량, 국제경상수지, 수입물가지수, 실업율, 화폐통화량을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 자기회귀오차모형으로 각 지역별 소비자물가지수를 46%-52% 정도 설명할 수 있다. The consumer price index (CPI) data is one of the important economic measurement of the country. In this article, the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model has been considered for analyzing the monthly CPI data at Seoul, Pusan, Daegu, and Gwangju Cities in Korea, In the ARE model, nine economic variables are used as the explanatory variables for the CPI data set. The nine explanatory variables are CCI (coincident composite index), won-dollar rate, producer price index, oil import price, oil import volume, international current account, import price index, unemployment rate, and amount of currency. The result showed that the monthly ARE models explained about 46-52% for describing the CPI.
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