Abstract
We present a method for predictive assessment of operational endurance in a complex mechanical system, which cannot be reduced to a series-parallel connection of elements, by finding a weak link. An empirical formula is obtained for the number of occurrences of elements of a regular directed graph in possible paths connecting its initial and final points. This formula will allow, if confirmed, to research a large-dimensional graph for the links that most affect the characteristics of the system as a whole. The results obtained are applicable to the construction of hidden models that take into account the technological heredity of the system.
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