Мировая обрабатывающая промышленность: сдвиги в конкурентных издержках

Abstract

For almost three decades a traditional conception of the world has driven corporate manufacturing investment and sourcing division. Latina America, Eastern Europe and most of Asia have been viewed as low-cost regions. The USA, Western Europe and Japan have been viewed as economies with too high costs. But now such a view appears to become more and more obsolete. Years of steady changes in wages, productivity, energy costs, national currencies’ values and other factors are quietly but dramatically redrawing the map of global manufacturing cost competitiveness. In some cases the shifts in relative costs are startling. Nobody has thought a decade ago that Brazil would now be one of the highest-cost countries for manufacturing or that Mexico could be cheaper production place than China. While London remains one of the priciest cities in the world to live and visit, the UK has become the lowest-cost manufacturer in Western Europe. Costs in Russia and many of Eastern Europe nations have risen to near parity with the US. The paper considers the ongoing shifts in the relative costs that should drive many companies to rethink decades-old assumption on their sourcing strategies and allocation of new production capacities. To identify and compare the shifts in relative costs the author analyzed statistical data for the period 2004–2014. It is concluded that four factors are responsible for dramatic shifts in manufacturing competitiveness: wages, exchange rates, labor productivity and energy costs. The dramatic shifts in relative costs could drive another large-scale transformation of the global economy as companies are prompted to reassess their manufacturing footprints. These trends also have implications for governments whose leaders increasingly recognize the economic importance of a stable manufacturing base. The author’s findings will, hopefully, encourage policy-makers in Russia to identify growing areas of strength and weakness and to take adequate actions to shore up the nation’s manufacturing competitiveness.