Виклики, загрози та ризики у контексті резильєнтності економіки

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the relationship between the concepts of challenges, threats and risks with the concept and signs of resilience. Based on the analysis of the dynamics, direction and content of publications in the scientific literature, indexed by leading publication databases, it is determined that the issue of identification, assessment and prevention of threats and risks is a constant subject of research by scholars in various fields of knowledge, but an unambiguous relationship to resilience has not been established. Among the subject orientation of publications, the main areas are various environmental issues, public health and the development of computer technologies. A generalization of approaches to definition and assessment made it possible to define a challenge as a phenomenon that can cause a threat, and risk as a threat that already has a probabilistic and quantitative assessment. Based on the analysis of various definitions of resilience, the following main features of the system’s resilience have been identified: adaptability – the ability to reorganize, rapid recovery after shocks, anticipation and avoidance of threats and risks. A scheme of possible transformation of challenges into shocks in the context of signs of resilience is proposed, in which the whole process is considered as controlled at all its stages. Challenges can have a potentially positive effect, but they need to be properly understood and responded to so as not to turn negative and pose threats. The transformation of conscious challenges into opportunities is ensured by the adaptability of a resilient society. Timely anticipation and identification of threats implies the possibility of preventive measures. Risk management should be based on a quantitative and qualitative assessment of probability and possible consequences. Measures to avoid, reduce the probability and prevent risks either exclude shock events, or shocks have a smaller scale and impact. As for the risks that are not prevented in time, the main feature of a resilient economic system is the ability to recover quickly. The resilience of the economic system requires the creation of a system of timely response to all levels of uncertainty at the strategic, tactical and operational levels, the structure of which can be based on the proposed scheme.