Математическая модель расщепления спроса на рынке междугородных пассажирских перевозок

Abstract

The article deals with international passenger transportation. The modern directions of research in the field of passenger transport are analyzed. The interaction of a large number of participants in the transport services market with each other under certain socio-economic conditions increases the complexity of competitive processes taking place in the market. A brief analysis of the intercity passenger transportation market is carried out. The current situation of transport companies and consumers is characterized as a buyer’s market. The transport characteristics of the southwestern part of the Siberian region are presented. The availability of alternative means of transportation leads to the need to develop mathematical models of splitting of passenger flows by means of transport. Information has been collected about the trips of passengers by rail, bus and road transport in direct and reverse directions on the Novosibirsk - Kemerovo and Novosibirsk - Tomsk routes. An algorithm has been developed for dividing the population into groups according to equivalent preferences of modes of transport, which allows us to estimate the amount of demand in the passenger transportation market. Based on the proposed algorithm, the task of optimizing the traffic intensity is set. It is shown how traffic intensity affects passenger traffic on railway transport. The total shares of the population according to the general preference of modes of transport in the considered directions are determined and analyzed.