РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ НА ДАЛЬНЕМ ВОСТОКЕ РОССИИ: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ, ПРИЧИНЫ, ПУТИ РЕШЕНИЯ

Abstract

Significance. Given the current trends in demographic development, the existing disproportion between the population and the vast territory of the Far Eastern Federal District may significantly increase in the future, which will intensify certain concerns about a possible violation of the geopolitical balance out here. Fertility indicators have revealed the main demographic risk zones of the regions of the eastern territories. The purpose of the study is to analyze dynamics in birth rates in the Russian Far East, gender composition and age structure of the population to identify risk zones when taking effective measures to improve the situation. Material and methods. The analysis used World Health Organization data, databases and collections of Rosstat and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation by federal district and region of Russia, information on the implementation of the National Demography Project. Results. Determining trends in dynamics in birth rates in the Russian Far East shows that in urban areas of the Far Eastern regions, the type of demographic behavior inherent in the newcomer population and focused on having one child prevails, while in rural areas the traditions of the indigenous population are preserved. Until 2015, relatively high birth rates were recorded in “national” regions with the predominance of populations belonging to the indigenous people of the North and the Far East, in whose culture large families are accepted. The mother’s average age is increasing, there was a shift in the age of first-time mothers (20-24 years) to an older age group (25-29 years and 30-34 years). A decline in fertility in the near future will be due to a significant reduction in the number of women of reproductive age, especially in its active phase (20–39 years). A new model of marital and, as a result, reproductive behavior of young families is being formed. From the point of view of marital behavior, it implies an increase in the age at first marriage, refusal of marriage, popularity of informal marriage, etc. From the point of view of reproductive behavior, it involves postponing births in marriage until material standards are achieved, as well as in the interests of increasing one’s social status. Conclusion. One of the promising areas for improving the demographic situation is the adoption of effective social measures and programs to increase birth rates in young families. Only a rising dynamics in birth rates can give a real and sustainable impetus to stabilizing fertility for the national security of the eastern territories.