Прогнозирование и верификация ключевых показателей энергетической эффективности железнодорожного транспорта

Abstract

The article reflects the issues of forecasting the target indicators of energy efficiency on the example of JSC «Russian Railways». The approaches selected for assessing the quantitative values of the key performance indicators of the Russian Railways holding in the development of the Energy Strategy for the period up to 2020 and for the future up to 2030 are considered. The accepted methods are conventionally classified into four groups, including: a heuristic method based on the analysis of time trends, an indirect method based on known values of indicators and using mathematical models. The method of forecasting the specific consumption of electricity and diesel fuel for train traction and the energy intensity of the production activity of JSC «Russian Railways» is considered in detail. Regression models have been developed that characterize the dependence of the specific fuel and energy consumption on such indicators as the volume of transportation work, the average mass of the train, and the share of freight work in the total work. In order to assess the accuracy of the obtained forecast values of the indicators included in the energy strategy of JSC «Russian Railways», they were verified by the results of 2017-2019. The results obtained allow us to speak about the sufficient effectiveness of the approaches considered in the article to predict the KPI of JSC «Russian Railways». The error in forecasting the main indicator of energy efficiency of JSC «Russian Railways» - the energy intensity of production activities - was 0,06 %.