Уровень глюкозы, ассоциированный с возникновением новых случаев сахарного диабета 2 типа у мужчин и женщин 45–69 лет в Новосибирске

Abstract

Aim. What glucose level is associated with the occurrence of new cases of diabetes mellitus 2 type (T2DM). Design. Prospective cohort study. Materials and methods. A survey of a representative sample of Novosibirsk residents was carried out in 2003–2005 as part of the international project Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe. The presented work included indicators of 3146 people aged 45–69 years without a previous history of carbohydrate metabolism disorders (all individuals with established T2DM at the time of the initial examination were excluded from the analysis). The study included people without a history of diabetes, examined in 2003–2005 and again in 2015–2018. New cases of T2DM were diagnosed in 2003–2021. According to epidemiological criteria, diabetes was established when the fasting blood glucose level was ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, according to the anamnesis and the City Diabetes Registry. Results. Initially, elevated fasting glucose concentrations (5.6–6.9 mmol/l) were detected in 45.3% of participants (28.5% — 5.6–6.0 mmol/l, hyperglycemia 6.1–6.9 mmol/l — 16.8%). According to dynamic observation data, by 2021, 316 (10.1%) people will be diagnosed with T2DM. The threshold blood glucose value that determines the risk of developing T2DM over time is 5.7 mmol/l, Se = 64.2%, Sp = 61.4%, AUC = 0.67. Conclusion. According to our data, among residents of Novosibirsk aged 45–69 years without diabetes, the prevalence of fasting hyperglycemia is high (5.6 mmol/l or more). Glucose level 5.7 mmol/L is the threshold value associated with new cases of T2DM in people 45–69 years of age. Keywords: new cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus, fasting glucose levels, fasting hyperglycemia.