Abstract
The methods of quantitative risk assessment based on results of hazard analysis using both expert estimates and systematic analysis of a dangerous object are discussed. It is shown that when the experts are measuring the risk factors, quantitative assessment risk without statistical processing of expert opinions and evaluation of the reliability of the result is not adequate. The basic methods of system analysis for quantitative risk assessment are considered. It is shown that the frequency of emergency depressurization for certain types of equipment given in the normative documents, received without justification that the sample is representative and homogeneous, and the events occurring in it are independent. For complex technological systems, representativeness and homogeneity of the sample, due to their uniqueness, cannot be ensured. It is shown that the logical-and-probabilistic analysis of complex systems with the use of statistical data on types of failures in the operation of the process equipment components for the probability calculation of the primary events in the logic circuits, allows to determine risk assessment uncertainty, which is necessary for decision-making.
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