Abstract
Climate change and related changes in natural ecosystems are the most important international issues of the twenty-first century. In this regard, modeling the dynamics of plant and animal habitats based on the analysis of their relationships with climate parameters and environmental characteristics becomes an urgent task. Modeling the geographical distribution of species is not possible without geoinformation analysis, which allows you to identify both the boundaries of factors that affect the distribution of the species, and the features of its range. The paper presents the author’s addition to the existing method of ecological and geographical modeling based on GIS technologies that allow to visualize the dynamics of areas in a certain period of time and in connection with changes in bioclimatic parameters. Modeling the spatial distribution of two marker species of ground beetles makes it possible to extrapolate fragmentary data on specific locations over large territories. The created geoinformation models of the predicted areas revealed their changes for different climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Based on ecological and geoinformation modeling, it was found that the formation of the modern range of Zabrus tenebrioides is significantly influenced by the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The distribution of Pterostichus oblongopunctatus is influenced by the average annual temperature, the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, and the average temperature of the driest quarter; the average temperature of the warmest quarter of the year and the amount of precipitation in the driest month of the year. The geoinformation analysis made it possible to identify the dependence of the number of points of species finds and the values of bioclimatic factors. Maps and graphs of the range of species comfort were created. The main trends of changes in the range of Pterostichus oblongopunctatus under changing climate conditions in the “soft” and “hard” scenarios are revealed. Under the influence of climate change, the area of habitats is reduced and their structure is changed.
Highlights
Based on ecological and geoinformation modeling, it was found that the formation of the modern range of Zabrus tenebrioides is significantly influenced by the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month
The distribution of Pterostichus oblongopunctatus is influenced by the average annual temperature, the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, and the average temperature of the driest quarter; the average temperature of the warmest quarter of the year and the amount of precipitation in the driest month of the year
The geoinformation analysis made it possible to identify the dependence of the number of points of species finds and the values of bioclimatic factors
Summary
Based on ecological and geoinformation modeling, it was found that the formation of the modern range of Zabrus tenebrioides is significantly influenced by the average daily temperature amplitude for each month, the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. В современных исследованиях большое внимание уделяется моделированию географического распространения биологических видов методом максимальной энтропии на базе программного пакета MaxEnt [Phillips, Dudik, 2008]. Анализ зарубежных источников литературы позволяет заключить, что в настоящее время накоплен значительный опыт моделирования как потенциальных мест обитания видов в настоящее время, так и прогнозных ареалов с учётом различных климатических сценариев [Yang et al, 2013; Aili et al, 2017; Huyong et al, 2020]. МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ Для моделирования пространственного распределения были выбраны 2 массовых вида жужелиц (Coleoptera, Carabidae): Zabrus tenebrioides и Pterostichus oblongopunctatus.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
