Поточний стан та прогноз кон’юнктури ринку яблук в Україні

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to consider the current state and forecast the conjuncture of the domestic apple market, taking into account the seasonality of their sale by all categories of farms. Research methods. The following methods are used in the research: analysis and synthesis, analytical generalizations, graphic - in the analysis of the production and sale of apples by various producers, foreign trade; balance sheet - when determining the market equilibrium of supply and demand, their changes and mutual influence, export and import supplies of fruits; statistical, extrapolation, design and calculation, mathematical modeling, decomposition of the time series - when forecasting the situation and sales volumes, taking into account the seasonality in the domestic apple market. Research results. The principal trends and peculiarities of functioning have been determined, the forecast of the domestic apple market development has been made, and structural changes in their export-import supplies have been established. On the basis of the formed balance of apples, the level of consumer security and expenses of the population was determined. The parameters of forecasting the sales volumes of these fruits by all categories of farms are considered. An economic forecasting model has been built taking into account the seasonal nature of the market. Scientific novelty. Methodical approaches to forecasting the apple market, taking into account the seasonal component, have been further developed, in particular, the optimal periods for forecasting, due to the specifics of the horticulture industry, have been established, which makes it possible to improve the quality and accuracy of the forecast. Practical significance. Taking into account that certain scientific aspects regarding forecasting the market conditions of fruit and berry products are debatable, the forecast of apple sales, taking into account the seasonal component, is an important element of strategic long-term planning for the development of the horticulture industry as part of the national economy. Tabl.: 2. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 15.