Abstract
The paper presents the results of studying the influence of modern agrometeorological conditions on the yield of different groups of grain crops in the municipal districts of the Saratov oblast. The climatic trends of the recent two decades are analyzed for five weather stations (Khvalynsk, Balashov, Saratov, Ershov, and Aleksandrov Gai). For the Saratov weather station, a longer period (1941-2022) is analyzed. There is an increase in the heat availability and aridity of the territory. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield distribution and variability has shown that the most favorable conditions of crop cultivation are formed in the Balashov municipal district. Operational forecast models of the maximum and minimum productivity of winter wheat are developed, which makes it possible to predict a yield with a monthly lead time.
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