Методика прогнозирования повторных общественно опасных действий у лиц с органическими психическими расстройствами

Abstract

Study Objective: To describe a new method for predicting repeat socially dan-gerous acts (SDA) by persons with organic mental disorders. Study Design: This was a comparative study. Materials and Methods: The people studied were 118 male patients with organic mental disorders who had committed SDA and were subject to involuntary medical measures, administered in outpatient or inpatient settings. These patients were divided into a main group, which was made up of 45 men who had commit-ted repeat SDA, and a comparison group, which consisted of 73 men with no history of recidivist criminal behavior in the follow-up period. The main research methods included clinical psychopathological assessments, prospective clinical follow-up (mean duration of follow-up was 8.65 ± 2.17 years), statistical analysis of clinical data, and criminological analysis. Study Results: Mathematical analysis and identification of the main correlation relationships made it possible to develop a questionnaire and a computer program for predicting the possibility of committing a repeat SDA. There are 24 input parameters. This method predicts repeat SDA in 82.9% of cases. For a sample of at least 80 people, the average predictive reliability of this method exceeds 80%, with a minimum reliability no lower than 70% in the event of random fluctuations. The study also showed that even with only one input parameter the method provides a reliable prognosis in almost 70% of cases, and beginning at 23 input parameters its prognostic reliability exceeds 80% and increases with in-crease of the number of input characteristics. Conclusion: The authors have developed a tool for predicting a repeat SDA, and its characteristics, using the pattern proximity method. This tool can be used for patients with any type of disorder. Further multifactorial evaluation of the causes of both initial and repeat SDA in patients with mental disorders provides information for assessing the possibility of predicting such actions. This study gives us a practical data-assessment tool, which can be widely used at any stage of preventive measures against socially dangerous behavior by patients with mental disorders. Keywords: socially dangerous act, organic mental disorders, prognostic methodology.