Реальные контуры и ориентиры валютного партнерства БРИКС для содействия торговле и инвестициям

Abstract

The article focuses on the evolution of monetary cooperation among BRICS members and on testing the bilateral trade andexchange rate indicators to target transaction costs as they drive export growth. It starts with the formal arrangements toensure the settlement of trade among BRICS in local currencies. An analysis of the export structures of BRICS membersreveals benefits from shifts in export structure from 2009 to 2013, first from China’s role in vertical trade integration andthen, second, as a growing source of demand for BRICS economies. With regard to the exchange rate indicators, mosttrade responses to exchange rate deviations were found to depend on the overall structure of exports. Some BRICS currencydevaluations that anticipate inflation are attributed to exchange rate discrepancies and dumping. With regard to thedivergent effects on export, Russia’s export grew largely through mineral fuel and Brazil has gained from its deepened traderelationships. Therefore, transaction costs may be reduced via common trade settlement arrangements and trade facilitation.The author introduces ideas for designing BRICS payment and settlement mechanisms. One suggestion is to build aclearing union on the platform of BRICS conditional currency reserves similar to the reserve tranche mechanism used by theInternational Monetary Fund. Another addresses cross border local currency payment systems with fine-tuning transac -tions among national clearing systems and banks.