Циркуляционные факторы возникновения лесных пожаров на территории Сибири и Дальнего Востока летом 2019 и 2021 гг.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of forest fires in Siberia. Particular attention is paid to three regions: Krasnoyarsk Territory, Irkutsk Region and the Republic of Yakutia. The causes of forest fires, weather and circulation conditions were analyzed as key natural factors of a high level of fire hazard in the boreal forests of the northern regions of the Asian part of Russia using the example of the territories of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Irkutsk Region and Yakutia. The typification of synoptic processes in the middle and lower troposphere is carried out, reflecting the prevailing contribution of blocking and mobile cyclogenesis processes to an increase in the area of distribution and the lifetime of forest fires. The long-term dynamics of temperature and humidity characteristics was estimated through the calculated values of the hydrothermal coefficient, which indicate a tendency to an increase in the probabilistic criteria of “insufficient moisture”, and in some years of weak droughts, which should be taken into account when predicting forest fires in the boreal forests of Siberia and Yakutia. A comparative analysis of the advective-dynamic factors of the occurrence of forest fires was carried out using the example of large forest fires in Siberia, starting from 1897. Particular attention is paid to the causes of the occurrence of large forest fires in the summer of 2019 and 2021.