Оцінювання сортів і ліній пшениці озимої за стабільною врожайністю та адаптивністю в умовах зміни клімату Лісостепу

Abstract

Goal. To assess varieties and lines of soft winter wheat for productivity and adaptability to Forest-Steppe climate change. Methods. Field (to determine yields and biometrics), laboratory (to determine grain quality), and variation statistics (to determine the reliability of the results). Results. The average daily air temperature for the vegetation period 2010–2021 compared to the period 1938–2010 increased by 1.6°C, and the amount of precipitation during the same period decreased by 35 mm. In these conditions, with energy-saving cultivation technologies, most varieties (Vodohrai, Polisianka, Myroliubna, Efektna, Krayevyd) provided an average yield of 5.8–6 t/ha with fluctuations of 4–8 t/ha (V=21–32%), exceeding the standard varieties Lisova Pisnia (by 0.2–0.4 t/ha) and Poliska 90 (by 0.5–1.1 t/ha). This indicates that the genotypes of modern varieties of winter wheat are quite productive, but even in the Forest-Steppe zone, in terms of adaptive potential, can not effectively withstand weather changes over the years. During the autumn growing season, there was an average correlation between precipitation and yield (r=0.32–0.55). Slightly weaker dependence was observed in Vodohray and Efektna varieties (r=0.32) and stronger dependence in varieties Poliska 90, Analog and Erythrospermum line 1428315 (r=0.46–0.55). During the period of grain formation, almost all varieties reacted negatively to elevated temperatures (r=–0.12–0.24). However, the late-ripening line Erythrospermum 1428315 (r=–0.5) reacted most strongly to such conditions. Changes in weather conditions affect the yield of by-products, quality and biometric indicators of winter wheat. Conclusions. Climate changes in the direction of warming and reducing the amount of precipitation during the growing season of wheat in the Forest-Steppe zone are currently not critical for high yields (5.8–6 t/ha) of modern varieties (Vodohray, Polisianka, Myroliubna, Efektna, Krayevyd) when using energy-saving growing technologies. However, in terms of adaptive potential, they cannot effectively withstand weather changes over the years. There is a significant dependence of yield during the autumn growing season on precipitation (r=0.32–0.55) and elevated temperatures during grain formation (r=–0.12–0.5). The creation of highly productive late-ripening varieties remains problematic.